Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 18/07, 10:00
Prediction: St George Willawong FC vs Caboolture FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.34Total
St George Willawong FC1.32
Caboolture FC2.02
1X2
St George Willawong FC
Draw
Caboolture FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
St George Willawong FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Caboolture FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St George Willawong FC
3–2
Caboolture FC
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St George Willawong FC 1434 · Caboolture FC 1514
| St George Willawong FC | Draw | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 25% | 21% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (rating 1434 vs 1514).
- H2H favours St George Willawong FC: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St George Willawong FC | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 1.9 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Willawong FC 3–0–2 Caboolture FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | St George Willawong FC |
| 07/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | St George Willawong FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Caboolture FC |
| 12/09/20 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Caboolture FC | 1-4 HT 0-3 | St George Willawong FC |
| 22/07/18 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | Caboolture FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | St George Willawong FC |
| 09/06/18 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | St George Willawong FC | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Caboolture FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 47 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Robina City | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | Ipswich FC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Caboolture FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 27 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 32 | 25 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 24 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 23 |
| 10 | North Star | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 12 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 10 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St George Willawong FC | Caboolture FC |
|---|---|---|
| Robina City | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Capalaba FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| North Star | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Holland Park Hawks | 1-2 L | 5-3 W |
| Broadbeach United | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 0-8 L | 1-2 L |
| Logan Lightning | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Ipswich FC | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St George Willawong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Caboolture FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 06/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | AC Carina Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St George Willawong FC vs Caboolture FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caboolture FC win (53%). Probabilities: St George Willawong FC 24%, draw 22%, Caboolture FC 53%.
How many goals are expected in St George Willawong FC vs Caboolture FC?
The model expects 3.34 goals (St George Willawong FC 1.32 · Caboolture FC 2.02), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in St George Willawong FC vs Caboolture FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.