Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 19/07, 08:00
Prediction: Capalaba FC vs Holland Park Hawks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.96Total
Capalaba FC1.6
Holland Park Hawks2.36
1X2
Capalaba FC
Draw
Holland Park Hawks
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Capalaba FC
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Holland Park Hawks
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Capalaba FC
4–2
Holland Park Hawks
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Capalaba FC 1393 · Holland Park Hawks 1471
| Capalaba FC | Draw | Holland Park Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| Market | 25% | 21% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holland Park Hawks (rating 1393 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Capalaba FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capalaba FC | Holland Park Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3 | 2.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capalaba FC 4–0–2 Holland Park Hawks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Capalaba FC |
| 02/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Capalaba FC |
| 29/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Holland Park Hawks |
| 01/06/21 Brisbane City League Cup | Capalaba FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Holland Park Hawks |
| 22/06/19 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 5-2 HT 2-0 | Holland Park Hawks |
| 06/04/19 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Capalaba FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 47 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Robina City | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | Ipswich FC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Caboolture FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 27 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 32 | 25 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 24 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 23 |
| 10 | North Star | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 12 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 10 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Capalaba FC | Holland Park Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Redlands United | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| St George Willawong FC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Broadbeach United | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Robina City | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Logan Lightning | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Caboolture FC | 1-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Brisbane Strikers | 0-8 L | 2-3 L |
| Ipswich FC | 2-4 L | 3-3 D |
| North Star | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 9 L | 3 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Holland Park Hawks (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capalaba FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
Holland Park Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Capalaba FC vs Holland Park Hawks?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Holland Park Hawks win (54%). Probabilities: Capalaba FC 25%, draw 21%, Holland Park Hawks 54%.
How many goals are expected in Capalaba FC vs Holland Park Hawks?
The model expects 3.96 goals (Capalaba FC 1.6 · Holland Park Hawks 2.36), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Capalaba FC vs Holland Park Hawks?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.