Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 18/07, 10:15
Prediction: Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.61Total
Logan Lightning1.69
Sunshine Coast Wanderers1.92
1X2
Logan Lightning
Draw
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Logan Lightning
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Logan Lightning
0–6
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Logan Lightning 1490 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1531
| Logan Lightning | Draw | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sunshine Coast Wanderers (rating 1490 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Sunshine Coast Wanderers: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Logan Lightning | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/56/22% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning 0–0–6 Sunshine Coast Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 5-2 HT 2-0 | Logan Lightning |
| 11/06/22 Australia NPL Queensland | Logan Lightning | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers |
| 27/03/22 Australia NPL Queensland | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Logan Lightning |
| 11/07/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Logan Lightning | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers |
| 09/06/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Logan Lightning |
| 12/02/21 Australia Friendlies | Logan Lightning | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 47 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Robina City | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | Ipswich FC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Caboolture FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 27 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 32 | 25 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 24 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 23 |
| 10 | North Star | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 12 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 10 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Logan Lightning | Sunshine Coast Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich FC | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Brisbane Strikers | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Caboolture FC | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Holland Park Hawks | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Robina City | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Capalaba FC | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| St George Willawong FC | 0-0 D | 8-0 W |
| North Star | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sunshine Coast Wanderers (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Logan Lightning
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 30/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sunshine Coast Wanderers win (43%). Probabilities: Logan Lightning 33%, draw 24%, Sunshine Coast Wanderers 43%.
How many goals are expected in Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?
The model expects 3.61 goals (Logan Lightning 1.69 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1.92), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.