Prediction: Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning
Expected goals: 3.47 (Brisbane Strikers 2.32 · Logan Lightning 1.15). The model gives 64% home, 19% draw, 17% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Brisbane Strikers is 8-1-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Logan Lightning 4-2-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Brisbane Strikers and 3 for Logan Lightning.
| Brisbane Strikers | Draw | Logan Lightning | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane Strikers (rating 1596 vs 1483).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Strikers | Logan Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.7 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Strikers 3–0–3 Logan Lightning
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Brisbane Strikers |
| 30/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Brisbane Strikers |
| 03/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Brisbane Strikers | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Logan Lightning |
| 20/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Brisbane Strikers |
| 20/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Brisbane Strikers | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Logan Lightning |
| 23/06/23 Australia Queensland Premier League | Brisbane Strikers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Logan Lightning |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Holland Park Hawks | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 21 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 20 |
| 10 | North Star | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 39 | 7 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Strikers | Logan Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Caboolture FC | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Robina City | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| North Star | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Capalaba FC | 8-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Holland Park Hawks | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Redlands United | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| St George Willawong FC | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Broadbeach United | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Brisbane Strikers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Strikers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 19/06 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 06/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/06 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
Logan Lightning
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Broadbeach United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brisbane Strikers win (64%). Probabilities: Brisbane Strikers 64%, draw 19%, Logan Lightning 17%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Brisbane Strikers 2.32 · Logan Lightning 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.