Prediction: Redlands United vs Capalaba FC
Expected goals: 4.13 (Redlands United 2.92 · Capalaba FC 1.21). The model gives 72% home, 15% draw, 13% away. Over 4 goals (50%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Redlands United sits at 4-2-4 (W-D-L), while Capalaba FC arrives on a 0-0-10 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Redlands United and 4 for Capalaba FC, with 1 draw.
| Redlands United | Draw | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 15% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redlands United (rating 1505 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Capalaba FC: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Redlands United | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 3.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Redlands United 1–1–4 Capalaba FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Redlands United |
| 02/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Capalaba FC | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Redlands United |
| 16/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Redlands United | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Capalaba FC |
| 10/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Redlands United |
| 24/10/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Capalaba FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Redlands United |
| 07/05/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Redlands United | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Capalaba FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 45 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 14 | 42 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | Ipswich FC | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 30 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 31 | 24 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 23 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 33 | 20 |
| 10 | North Star | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 10 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 50 | 7 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Redlands United | Capalaba FC |
|---|---|---|
| North Star | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Logan Lightning | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Holland Park Hawks | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Ipswich FC | 5-0 W | 2-4 L |
| St George Willawong FC | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Broadbeach United | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Brisbane Strikers | 1-1 D | 0-8 L |
| Caboolture FC | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Robina City | 2-2 D | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 9 L |
Better against common opponents: Redlands United (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Redlands United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 10/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
Capalaba FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Redlands United vs Capalaba FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Redlands United win (72%). Probabilities: Redlands United 72%, draw 15%, Capalaba FC 13%.
How many goals are expected in Redlands United vs Capalaba FC?
The model expects 4.13 goals (Redlands United 2.92 · Capalaba FC 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Redlands United vs Capalaba FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.