Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 09/08, 08:00

Prediction: Caboolture FC vs Holland Park Hawks

Team pages: Caboolture FC · Holland Park Hawks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Caboolture FC2.43

Holland Park Hawks1.68

1X2

54% 21% 26%

Caboolture FC Draw Holland Park Hawks

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Caboolture FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Holland Park Hawks 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDDLW

Head-to-head

Caboolture FC 1–1–1 Holland Park Hawks (3 last)

Holland Park Hawks3-5Caboolture FC
Caboolture FC1-3Holland Park Hawks
Holland Park Hawks1-1Caboolture FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caboolture FC 1481 · Holland Park Hawks 1475

	Caboolture FC	Draw	Holland Park Hawks
Our model	54%	21%	26%
Market	54%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caboolture FC	Holland Park Hawks
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	2.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.33

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:41 +10’	1.67	4.33	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caboolture FC 1–1–1 Holland Park Hawks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Holland Park Hawks	3-5 HT 1-2	Caboolture FC
18/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Caboolture FC	1-3 HT 1-0	Holland Park Hawks
17/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Holland Park Hawks	1-1 HT 0-1	Caboolture FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	20	16	3	1	47	15	51
2	Broadbeach United	20	15	4	1	49	18	49
3	Ipswich FC	20	9	5	6	32	29	32
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	20	8	7	5	38	26	31
5	Robina City	20	8	5	7	34	27	29
6	Caboolture FC	20	8	4	8	37	34	28
7	Redlands United	20	7	6	7	38	35	27
8	Holland Park Hawks	20	8	3	9	35	39	27
9	Logan Lightning	20	7	3	10	35	38	24
10	North Star	20	4	3	13	19	40	15
11	St George Willawong FC	20	4	1	15	11	42	13
12	Capalaba FC	20	3	2	15	20	52	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caboolture FC	Holland Park Hawks
Redlands United	2-2 D	1-4 L
St George Willawong FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Broadbeach United	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	1-2 L	3-2 W
Logan Lightning	3-1 W	3-2 W
Ipswich FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
Capalaba FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Caboolture FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
18/07	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
15/07	Brisbane Roar Australia Friendlies	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
11/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
03/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
27/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
19/06	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	10	L
06/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
30/05	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
26/05	AC Carina Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	4-0	3	2	W

Holland Park Hawks

WLLWWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	2-3	6-3	2	4	W
19/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
10/07	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
03/07	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
26/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	1-4	4	4	L
23/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	1	W
19/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
13/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
06/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
23/05	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	3-2	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caboolture FC vs Holland Park Hawks?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caboolture FC win (54%). Probabilities: Caboolture FC 54%, draw 21%, Holland Park Hawks 26%.

How many goals are expected in Caboolture FC vs Holland Park Hawks?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Caboolture FC 2.43 · Holland Park Hawks 1.68), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Caboolture FC vs Holland Park Hawks?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.