Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 09/08, 08:00

Prediction: Ipswich FC vs Capalaba FC

Team pages: Ipswich FC · Capalaba FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Ipswich FC2.55

Capalaba FC1.22

1X2

66% 18% 16%

Ipswich FC Draw Capalaba FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ipswich FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Capalaba FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ipswich FC 3–1–1 Capalaba FC (5 last)

Capalaba FC2-4Ipswich FC
Capalaba FC0-3Ipswich FC
Ipswich FC2-4Capalaba FC
Ipswich FC1-1Capalaba FC
Capalaba FC0-5Ipswich FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ipswich FC 1482 · Capalaba FC 1408

	Ipswich FC	Draw	Capalaba FC
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	66%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ipswich FC (rating 1482 vs 1408).
H2H favours Ipswich FC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ipswich FC	Capalaba FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	0.7 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.1 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:41 +10’	1.36	5.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ipswich FC 3–1–1 Capalaba FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Capalaba FC	2-4 HT 1-1	Ipswich FC
21/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Capalaba FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Ipswich FC
22/03/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Ipswich FC	2-4 HT 0-1	Capalaba FC
29/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Ipswich FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Capalaba FC
08/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Capalaba FC	0-5 HT 0-3	Ipswich FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	20	16	3	1	47	15	51
2	Broadbeach United	20	15	4	1	49	18	49
3	Ipswich FC	20	9	5	6	32	29	32
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	20	8	7	5	38	26	31
5	Robina City	20	8	5	7	34	27	29
6	Caboolture FC	20	8	4	8	37	34	28
7	Redlands United	20	7	6	7	38	35	27
8	Holland Park Hawks	20	8	3	9	35	39	27
9	Logan Lightning	20	7	3	10	35	38	24
10	North Star	20	4	3	13	19	40	15
11	St George Willawong FC	20	4	1	15	11	42	13
12	Capalaba FC	20	3	2	15	20	52	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ipswich FC	Capalaba FC
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	0-0 D	0-5 L
North Star	3-2 W	0-1 L
Logan Lightning	2-3 L	0-1 L
Holland Park Hawks	3-3 D	3-0 W
Brisbane Strikers	0-1 L	0-8 L
Redlands United	0-5 L	1-1 D
Robina City	0-1 L	1-5 L
Caboolture FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
St George Willawong FC	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Ipswich FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ipswich FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
22/07	Brisbane Roar Australia Friendlies	–	0-5	0	0	L
18/07	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	3-2	7	3	W
11/07	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-3	2	1	L
03/07	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/06	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
20/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	5	L
09/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
06/06	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
24/05	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	4-0	5	4	W

Capalaba FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
19/07	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
11/07	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/07	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
27/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
23/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	1-4	1-5	4	4	L
20/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	3	L
05/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
30/05	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/05	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	0-8	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ipswich FC vs Capalaba FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ipswich FC win (66%). Probabilities: Ipswich FC 66%, draw 18%, Capalaba FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Ipswich FC vs Capalaba FC?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Ipswich FC 2.55 · Capalaba FC 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ipswich FC vs Capalaba FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.