Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 08/08, 10:00

Prediction: Brisbane Olympic FC vs Moreton City Excelsior

Team pages: Brisbane Olympic FC · Moreton City Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Brisbane Olympic FC1.58

Moreton City Excelsior2.44

1X2

24% 21% 56%

Brisbane Olympic FC Draw Moreton City Excelsior

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane Olympic FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLWW

Moreton City Excelsior 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Brisbane Olympic FC 1–2–3 Moreton City Excelsior (6 last)

Moreton City Excelsior4-3Brisbane Olympic FC
Moreton City Excelsior2-0Brisbane Olympic FC
Moreton City Excelsior1-2Brisbane Olympic FC
Brisbane Olympic FC1-2Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior1-1Brisbane Olympic FC
Brisbane Olympic FC1-1Moreton City Excelsior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane Olympic FC 1462 · Moreton City Excelsior 1505

	Brisbane Olympic FC	Draw	Moreton City Excelsior
Our model	24%	20%	56%
Market	24%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreton City Excelsior (rating 1462 vs 1505).
H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane Olympic FC	Moreton City Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:08 +5’	3.80	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Olympic FC 1–2–3 Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	4-3 HT 2-1	Brisbane Olympic FC
07/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	2-0 HT 0-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
21/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Moreton City Excelsior	1-2 HT 0-1	Brisbane Olympic FC
02/03/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Moreton City Excelsior
25/05/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	1-1 HT 0-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
25/02/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
2	Peninsula Power	20	13	4	3	45	23	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	20	11	3	6	49	32	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	20	10	4	6	42	29	34
5	Wynnum Wolves	20	9	5	6	36	37	32
6	Brisbane City	20	8	6	6	43	46	30
7	Eastern Suburbs	20	9	1	10	34	33	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	20	8	2	10	37	39	26
9	Rochedale Rovers	20	5	3	12	31	49	18
10	Gold Coast United	20	5	2	13	24	37	17
11	Brisbane Roar NPL	20	5	1	14	29	46	16
12	Magic United	20	5	1	14	28	58	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane Olympic FC	Moreton City Excelsior
Magic United	3-0 W	4-3 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-1 W	0-2 L
Gold Coast United	0-3 L	1-0 W
Eastern Suburbs	2-1 W	0-0 D
Peninsula Power	1-3 L	2-2 D
Gold Coast Knights	2-5 L	1-2 L
Brisbane City	2-3 L	2-5 L
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Brisbane Olympic FC

LLLLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	3-0	6	7	W
19/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
12/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
05/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-5	4	0	L
31/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	2-3	3	4	L
26/05	Lions FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
22/05	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W
05/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-3	2-5	5	7	L
16/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Moreton City Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moreton City Excelsior win (56%). Probabilities: Brisbane Olympic FC 24%, draw 21%, Moreton City Excelsior 56%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Brisbane Olympic FC 1.58 · Moreton City Excelsior 2.44), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.