Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 08/08, 10:00

Prediction: Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United

Team pages: Brisbane City · Gold Coast United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Brisbane City2.31

Gold Coast United1.29

1X2

60% 20% 20%

Brisbane City Draw Gold Coast United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDDWL

Gold Coast United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Brisbane City 2–2–2 Gold Coast United (6 last)

Gold Coast United0-2Brisbane City
Gold Coast United2-0Brisbane City
Brisbane City1-1Gold Coast United
Brisbane City1-1Gold Coast United
Gold Coast United3-0Brisbane City
Brisbane City4-1Gold Coast United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane City 1528 · Gold Coast United 1428

	Brisbane City	Draw	Gold Coast United
Our model	59%	21%	19%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (rating 1528 vs 1428).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane City	Gold Coast United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +1’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane City 2–2–2 Gold Coast United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	0-2 HT 0-2	Brisbane City
14/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	2-0 HT 0-0	Brisbane City
09/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	1-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United
09/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	1-1 HT 0-1	Gold Coast United
09/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	3-0 HT 1-0	Brisbane City
26/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	4-1 HT 1-1	Gold Coast United

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
2	Peninsula Power	20	13	4	3	45	23	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	20	11	3	6	49	32	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	20	10	4	6	42	29	34
5	Wynnum Wolves	20	9	5	6	36	37	32
6	Brisbane City	20	8	6	6	43	46	30
7	Eastern Suburbs	20	9	1	10	34	33	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	20	8	2	10	37	39	26
9	Rochedale Rovers	20	5	3	12	31	49	18
10	Gold Coast United	20	5	2	13	24	37	17
11	Brisbane Roar NPL	20	5	1	14	29	46	16
12	Magic United	20	5	1	14	28	58	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane City	Gold Coast United
Wynnum Wolves	2-5 L	1-2 L
Gold Coast Knights	0-0 D	1-0 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	1-1 D	1-4 L
Magic United	5-3 W	1-3 L
Lions FC	0-4 L	0-1 L
Brisbane Olympic FC	3-2 W	3-0 W
Moreton City Excelsior	5-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast United (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brisbane City

WWLWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-5	7	3	L
18/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
12/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
27/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	5-3	9	3	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
13/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
06/06	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
31/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
22/05	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	3-1	5-2	4	7	W

Gold Coast United

LLLLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
12/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
28/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
20/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-4	7	3	L
13/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
07/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
30/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brisbane City win (60%). Probabilities: Brisbane City 60%, draw 20%, Gold Coast United 20%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Brisbane City 2.31 · Gold Coast United 1.29), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.