Prediction: Lions FC vs Eastern Suburbs
Expected goals: 3.79 (Lions FC 2.52 · Eastern Suburbs 1.27). The model gives 64% home, 19% draw, 17% away. Under 4 goals (55%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Lions FC is 8-1-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Eastern Suburbs 6-1-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Lions FC won 1 and Eastern Suburbs 2, with 3 draws.
| Lions FC | Draw | Eastern Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1590 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Eastern Suburbs: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lions FC | Eastern Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.8 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 1–3–2 Eastern Suburbs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Eastern Suburbs | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lions FC |
| 14/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Lions FC |
| 23/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Lions FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Eastern Suburbs |
| 09/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Lions FC |
| 20/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lions FC |
| 14/05/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Lions FC | 4-4 HT 3-1 | Eastern Suburbs |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 18 | 38 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 32 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 26 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 25 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Magic United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 50 | 13 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lions FC | Eastern Suburbs |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Wynnum Wolves | 6-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Rochedale Rovers | 2-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Brisbane City | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Magic United | 5-3 W | 2-0 W |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Peninsula Power | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lions FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lions FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 6-2 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
4-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/05 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
Eastern Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 6-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Eastern Suburbs?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC win (64%). Probabilities: Lions FC 64%, draw 19%, Eastern Suburbs 17%.
How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Eastern Suburbs?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Lions FC 2.52 · Eastern Suburbs 1.27), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Eastern Suburbs?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.