Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 31/07, 11:30

Prediction: Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs

Team pages: Rochedale Rovers · Eastern Suburbs

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Rochedale Rovers1.79

Eastern Suburbs2.11

1X2

33% 22% 45%

Rochedale Rovers Draw Eastern Suburbs

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rochedale Rovers 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDLLL

Eastern Suburbs 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Rochedale Rovers 2–1–3 Eastern Suburbs (6 last)

Eastern Suburbs6-1Rochedale Rovers
Eastern Suburbs1-3Rochedale Rovers
Eastern Suburbs1-6Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers0-1Eastern Suburbs
Rochedale Rovers0-6Eastern Suburbs
Rochedale Rovers3-3Eastern Suburbs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rochedale Rovers 1425 · Eastern Suburbs 1481

	Rochedale Rovers	Draw	Eastern Suburbs
Our model	33%	22%	45%
Market	33%	22%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs (rating 1425 vs 1481).
H2H favours Eastern Suburbs: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rochedale Rovers	Eastern Suburbs
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.2	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +6’	2.75	4.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochedale Rovers 2–1–3 Eastern Suburbs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Eastern Suburbs	6-1 HT 3-0	Rochedale Rovers
30/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Eastern Suburbs	1-3 HT 1-0	Rochedale Rovers
03/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Eastern Suburbs	1-6 HT 1-1	Rochedale Rovers
25/02/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Rochedale Rovers	0-1 HT 0-0	Eastern Suburbs
12/01/19 Australia Friendlies	Rochedale Rovers	0-6 HT 0-3	Eastern Suburbs
09/07/18 Australia Queensland Premier League	Rochedale Rovers	3-3 HT 1-1	Eastern Suburbs

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	19	14	2	3	50	20	44
2	Peninsula Power	19	13	4	2	45	22	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	19	11	3	5	49	30	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	19	10	4	5	42	28	34
5	Brisbane City	19	8	6	5	41	41	30
6	Wynnum Wolves	19	8	5	6	31	35	29
7	Eastern Suburbs	19	9	1	9	33	31	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	19	7	2	10	34	39	23
9	Magic United	19	5	1	13	28	55	16
10	Rochedale Rovers	19	4	3	12	29	48	15
11	Gold Coast United	19	4	2	13	23	37	14
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	19	4	1	14	27	46	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rochedale Rovers	Eastern Suburbs
Brisbane City	2-3 L	3-1 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	1-4 L	3-1 W
Wynnum Wolves	1-1 D	2-1 W
Gold Coast Knights	4-1 W	1-4 L
Lions FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Moreton City Excelsior	2-5 L	0-0 D
Peninsula Power	0-2 L	1-3 L
Magic United	4-0 W	1-4 L
Gold Coast United	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rochedale Rovers

LWLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
14/07	SD Raiders Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
10/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
03/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
26/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
21/06	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
16/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
03/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
23/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-4	2	4	L

Eastern Suburbs

WWDWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-4	6	3	L
12/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
04/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
27/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-2	6	3	L
23/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-3	1-4	3	2	L
20/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	3-1	4	1	W
16/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	11	0	W
05/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
24/05	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
10/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs win (45%). Probabilities: Rochedale Rovers 33%, draw 22%, Eastern Suburbs 45%.

How many goals are expected in Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Rochedale Rovers 1.79 · Eastern Suburbs 2.11), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.