Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 08/08, 10:00

Prediction: Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power

Team pages: Gold Coast Knights · Peninsula Power

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Gold Coast Knights1.43

Peninsula Power1.75

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Gold Coast Knights Draw Peninsula Power

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast Knights 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Peninsula Power 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gold Coast Knights 2–1–3 Peninsula Power (6 last)

Peninsula Power2-0Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights0-0Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power2-0Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights3-2Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-0Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights5-0Peninsula Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights 1495 · Peninsula Power 1566

	Gold Coast Knights	Draw	Peninsula Power
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (rating 1495 vs 1566).
H2H favours Peninsula Power: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast Knights	Peninsula Power
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +59’	2.88	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights 2–1–3 Peninsula Power

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	2-0 HT 1-0	Gold Coast Knights
12/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-0 HT 0-0	Peninsula Power
28/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	2-0 HT 1-0	Gold Coast Knights
08/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	3-2 HT 2-2	Peninsula Power
09/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-0 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights
08/09/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	5-0 HT 0-0	Peninsula Power

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
2	Peninsula Power	20	13	4	3	45	23	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	20	11	3	6	49	32	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	20	10	4	6	42	29	34
5	Wynnum Wolves	20	9	5	6	36	37	32
6	Brisbane City	20	8	6	6	43	46	30
7	Eastern Suburbs	20	9	1	10	34	33	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	20	8	2	10	37	39	26
9	Rochedale Rovers	20	5	3	12	31	49	18
10	Gold Coast United	20	5	2	13	24	37	17
11	Brisbane Roar NPL	20	5	1	14	29	46	16
12	Magic United	20	5	1	14	28	58	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast Knights	Peninsula Power
Gold Coast United	0-1 L	4-0 W
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	0-0 D
Lions FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Moreton City Excelsior	2-1 W	2-2 D
Rochedale Rovers	1-4 L	2-0 W
Eastern Suburbs	4-1 W	3-1 W
Magic United	2-1 W	3-2 W
Brisbane Olympic FC	5-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gold Coast Knights

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
25/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
12/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
07/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
04/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
05/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	5-2	5	0	W

Peninsula Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
18/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
14/07	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
23/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-2	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Peninsula Power win (45%). Probabilities: Gold Coast Knights 31%, draw 24%, Peninsula Power 45%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Gold Coast Knights 1.43 · Peninsula Power 1.75), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.