Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 01/08, 10:00

Prediction: Lions FC vs Peninsula Power

Team pages: Lions FC · Peninsula Power

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Lions FC1.77

Peninsula Power1.52

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Lions FC Draw Peninsula Power

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lions FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Peninsula Power 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lions FC 3–1–2 Peninsula Power (6 last)

Peninsula Power3-2Lions FC
Lions FC3-0Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-2Lions FC
Lions FC1-1Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power3-1Lions FC
Lions FC3-1Peninsula Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC 1610 · Peninsula Power 1588

	Lions FC	Draw	Peninsula Power
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lions FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC	Peninsula Power
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.9	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +6’	2.05	3.90	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 3–1–2 Peninsula Power

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	3-2 HT 2-1	Lions FC
06/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Peninsula Power
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-2 HT 0-1	Lions FC
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Peninsula Power
21/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Peninsula Power	3-1 HT 2-1	Lions FC
25/05/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Peninsula Power

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	19	14	2	3	50	20	44
2	Peninsula Power	19	13	4	2	45	22	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	19	11	3	5	49	30	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	19	10	4	5	42	28	34
5	Brisbane City	19	8	6	5	41	41	30
6	Wynnum Wolves	19	8	5	6	31	35	29
7	Eastern Suburbs	19	9	1	9	33	31	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	19	7	2	10	34	39	23
9	Magic United	19	5	1	13	28	55	16
10	Rochedale Rovers	19	4	3	12	29	48	15
11	Gold Coast United	19	4	2	13	23	37	14
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	19	4	1	14	27	46	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC	Peninsula Power
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	4-0 W
Eastern Suburbs	1-0 W	3-1 W
Brisbane Olympic FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
Wynnum Wolves	6-2 W	0-0 D
Rochedale Rovers	2-1 W	2-0 W
Magic United	5-3 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lions FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Perth Glory Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
18/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
31/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	4-1	5-3	5	1	W
26/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	1-0	12	1	W

Peninsula Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
14/07	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
23/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
20/05	Moggill Australia Cup Qualifying	2-1	4-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC win (43%). Probabilities: Lions FC 43%, draw 24%, Peninsula Power 33%.

How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Lions FC 1.77 · Peninsula Power 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.