Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 02/08, 06:30

Prediction: Brisbane Roar NPL vs Moreton City Excelsior

Team pages: Brisbane Roar NPL · Moreton City Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Brisbane Roar NPL1.41

Moreton City Excelsior2.92

1X2

15% 17% 67%

Brisbane Roar NPL Draw Moreton City Excelsior

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane Roar NPL 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Moreton City Excelsior 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Brisbane Roar NPL 0–1–5 Moreton City Excelsior (6 last)

Moreton City Excelsior6-0Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL2-4Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior1-1Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL1-2Moreton City Excelsior
Brisbane Roar NPL1-3Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior3-2Brisbane Roar NPL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane Roar NPL 1433 · Moreton City Excelsior 1533

	Brisbane Roar NPL	Draw	Moreton City Excelsior
Our model	15%	17%	68%
Market	15%	18%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreton City Excelsior (rating 1433 vs 1533).
H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane Roar NPL	Moreton City Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:22 +2’	6.00	5.00	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Roar NPL 0–1–5 Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	6-0 HT 3-0	Brisbane Roar NPL
15/02/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series	Brisbane Roar NPL	2-4 HT 1-1	Moreton City Excelsior
21/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	1-1 HT 1-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
22/03/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-2 HT 1-0	Moreton City Excelsior
02/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-3 HT 1-3	Moreton City Excelsior
02/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	3-2 HT 0-1	Brisbane Roar NPL

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	19	14	2	3	50	20	44
2	Peninsula Power	19	13	4	2	45	22	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	19	11	3	5	49	30	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	19	10	4	5	42	28	34
5	Brisbane City	19	8	6	5	41	41	30
6	Wynnum Wolves	19	8	5	6	31	35	29
7	Eastern Suburbs	19	9	1	9	33	31	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	19	7	2	10	34	39	23
9	Magic United	19	5	1	13	28	55	16
10	Rochedale Rovers	19	4	3	12	29	48	15
11	Gold Coast United	19	4	2	13	23	37	14
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	19	4	1	14	27	46	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane Roar NPL	Moreton City Excelsior
Brisbane Olympic FC	1-3 L	4-3 W
Rochedale Rovers	4-1 W	5-2 W
Brisbane City	1-1 D	2-5 L
Peninsula Power	1-3 L	2-2 D
Gold Coast United	4-1 W	1-0 W
Magic United	1-2 L	4-3 W
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	2-2 D
Eastern Suburbs	1-3 L	0-0 D
Lions FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Gold Coast Knights	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Moreton City Excelsior (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brisbane Roar NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
10/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-1	6	5	W
05/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
06/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
02/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/05	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
15/05	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
10/05	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-3	2	5	L

Moreton City Excelsior

LWLDWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W
05/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-3	2-5	5	7	L
16/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	8	2	W
09/05	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Moreton City Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moreton City Excelsior win (67%). Probabilities: Brisbane Roar NPL 15%, draw 17%, Moreton City Excelsior 67%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Brisbane Roar NPL 1.41 · Moreton City Excelsior 2.92), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.