Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 25/07, 10:15

Prediction: Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Gold Coast Knights2.34

Gold Coast United1.04

1X2

66% 19% 15%

Gold Coast Knights Draw Gold Coast United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast Knights 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWDL

Gold Coast United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Gold Coast Knights 3–1–2 Gold Coast United (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights 1530 · Gold Coast United 1400

	Gold Coast Knights	Draw	Gold Coast United
Our model	66%	20%	14%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (rating 1530 vs 1400).
H2H favours Gold Coast Knights: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast Knights	Gold Coast United
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	1.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:08 +1’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights 3–1–2 Gold Coast United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United
01/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	5-1 HT 3-1	Gold Coast United
01/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	1-2 HT 0-1	Gold Coast Knights
03/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	2-2 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights
24/02/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-3 HT 0-1	Gold Coast United

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	19	14	2	3	50	20	44
2	Peninsula Power	19	13	4	2	45	22	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	19	11	3	5	49	30	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	18	10	3	5	41	27	33
5	Brisbane City	19	8	6	5	41	41	30
6	Wynnum Wolves	19	8	5	6	31	35	29
7	Eastern Suburbs	19	9	1	9	33	31	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	19	7	2	10	34	39	23
9	Magic United	19	5	1	13	28	55	16
10	Rochedale Rovers	19	4	3	12	29	48	15
11	Gold Coast United	18	4	1	13	22	36	13
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	19	4	1	14	27	46	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast Knights	Gold Coast United
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	1-2 L
Brisbane City	0-0 D	0-2 L
Lions FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Moreton City Excelsior	2-1 W	0-1 L
Rochedale Rovers	1-4 L	4-0 W
Magic United	2-1 W	1-3 L
Brisbane Olympic FC	5-2 W	3-0 W
Peninsula Power	0-2 L	0-4 L
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-2 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gold Coast Knights

WLWWWLWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
12/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
07/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
04/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
05/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	5-2	5	0	W
15/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
10/05	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	3-2	9	5	W

Gold Coast United

WLLLLLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
12/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
28/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
20/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-4	7	3	L
13/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
07/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
30/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-4	3	5	L
26/05	North Star Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/05	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gold Coast Knights win (66%). Probabilities: Gold Coast Knights 66%, draw 19%, Gold Coast United 15%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Gold Coast Knights 2.34 · Gold Coast United 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.