Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior vs Magic United
Expected goals: 4.57 (Moreton City Excelsior 3.29 · Magic United 1.29). The model gives 79% home, 12% draw, 9% away. Under 4.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
On recent form, Moreton City Excelsior is 5-2-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Magic United 2-0-8 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 1 wins for Moreton City Excelsior and 0 for Magic United.
| Moreton City Excelsior | Draw | Magic United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 83% | 10% | 7% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreton City Excelsior (rating 1541 vs 1413).
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moreton City Excelsior | Magic United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.2 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior 1–0–0 Magic United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Magic United | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Moreton City Excelsior |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 18 | 38 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 32 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 26 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 25 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Magic United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 50 | 13 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moreton City Excelsior | Magic United |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast Knights | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Gold Coast United | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Wynnum Wolves | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Rochedale Rovers | 5-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Eastern Suburbs | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Brisbane City | 2-5 L | 3-5 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 4-3 W | 0-2 L |
| Lions FC | 0-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 6-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Peninsula Power | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Moreton City Excelsior (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moreton City Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 16/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 5-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
1-3 | 2-5 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 4-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Magic United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
2-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-4 | 3-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior vs Magic United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Moreton City Excelsior win (79%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 79%, draw 12%, Magic United 9%.
How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior vs Magic United?
The model expects 4.57 goals (Moreton City Excelsior 3.29 · Magic United 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior vs Magic United?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.