Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 03/08, 18:00

Prediction: Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 2

Team pages: Oppsal · Sarpsborg 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Oppsal2.18

Sarpsborg 21.55

1X2

52% 21% 27%

Oppsal Draw Sarpsborg 2

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Oppsal 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLWD

Sarpsborg 2 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Oppsal 3–1–2 Sarpsborg 2 (6 last)

Sarpsborg 20-2Oppsal
Oppsal1-0Sarpsborg 2
Sarpsborg 21-1Oppsal
Sarpsborg 22-1Oppsal
Oppsal4-3Sarpsborg 2
Sarpsborg 23-1Oppsal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oppsal 1554 · Sarpsborg 2 1450

	Oppsal	Draw	Sarpsborg 2
Our model	51%	22%	27%
Market	52%	21%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oppsal (rating 1554 vs 1450).
H2H favours Oppsal: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oppsal	Sarpsborg 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.6 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +22’	1.73	4.33	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oppsal 3–1–2 Sarpsborg 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sarpsborg 2	0-2 HT 0-0	Oppsal
18/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Oppsal	1-0 HT 1-0	Sarpsborg 2
28/04/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sarpsborg 2	1-1 HT 0-1	Oppsal
01/09/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Sarpsborg 2	2-1 HT 0-1	Oppsal
22/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Oppsal	4-3 HT 1-2	Sarpsborg 2
14/10/23 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sarpsborg 2	3-1 HT 1-1	Oppsal

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	14	11	2	1	54	20	35
2	Gjøvik-Lyn	14	9	2	3	20	9	29
3	Rade IL	14	9	1	4	56	26	28
4	Elverum	14	9	1	4	37	23	28
5	Ørn Horten	14	6	4	4	26	23	22
6	Oppsal	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
7	Lyn 1896 II	13	6	2	5	26	27	20
8	Rælingen	14	6	2	6	29	37	20
9	Drøbak/Frogn	14	5	4	5	25	18	19
10	Sandefjord 2	14	6	1	7	37	33	19
11	Fram	14	3	3	8	18	30	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	13	3	2	8	21	34	11
13	Brumunddal	13	2	2	9	15	48	8
14	Bjørkelangen	14	1	0	13	10	51	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oppsal	Sarpsborg 2
Lyn 1896 II	2-2 D	6-3 W
Ørn Horten	0-2 L	2-3 L
Rade IL	1-0 W	1-5 L
Brumunddal	4-1 W	3-3 D
Bjørkelangen	4-1 W	0-2 L
Fram	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oppsal

DWWWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
27/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
20/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	13	5	W
30/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
23/05	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
14/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
09/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
02/05	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
25/04	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	2	3	D

Sarpsborg 2

LWLWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	2-3	4	0	L
25/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
20/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
30/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-5	0	2	L
19/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	6-3	9	3	W
10/05	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/04	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oppsal win (52%). Probabilities: Oppsal 52%, draw 21%, Sarpsborg 2 27%.

How many goals are expected in Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 2?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Oppsal 2.18 · Sarpsborg 2 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 2?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.