Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Rade IL vs Bjørkelangen

Team pages: Rade IL · Bjørkelangen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.74Total

Rade IL3.37

Bjørkelangen1.37

1X2

80% 12% 9%

Rade IL Draw Bjørkelangen

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rade IL 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWWLW

Bjørkelangen 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Rade IL 1–0 Bjørkelangen (1 last)

Bjørkelangen0-9Rade IL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rade IL 1578 · Bjørkelangen 1384

	Rade IL	Draw	Bjørkelangen
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	84%	10%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.74 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rade IL (rating 1578 vs 1384).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rade IL	Bjørkelangen
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 2.2	0.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	2.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.10

X9.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.98

2 (+3.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 51.98

Under 51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.10▲	Bet365 1.10
X	10.00 → 9.50▼	Bet365 9.50
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +48’	1.08	10.00	15.00
22:03 +6’	1.10▲	9.50▼	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rade IL 1–0–0 Bjørkelangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Bjørkelangen	0-9 HT 0-6	Rade IL

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	13	10	2	1	52	19	32
2	Gjøvik-Lyn	13	8	2	3	17	8	26
3	Rade IL	13	8	1	4	48	25	25
4	Elverum	13	8	1	4	34	22	25
5	Ørn Horten	13	6	4	3	26	21	22
6	Oppsal	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
7	Lyn 1896 II	13	6	2	5	26	27	20
8	Drøbak/Frogn	13	5	4	4	24	16	19
9	Sandefjord 2	13	6	1	6	36	30	19
10	Rælingen	13	5	2	6	27	37	17
11	Fram	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	13	3	2	8	21	34	11
13	Brumunddal	13	2	2	9	15	48	8
14	Bjørkelangen	13	1	0	12	9	43	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rade IL	Bjørkelangen
Drøbak/Frogn	2-1 W	0-3 L
Rælingen	7-2 W	1-3 L
Lillehammer	1-8 L	1-2 L
Sarpsborg 2	5-1 W	2-0 W
Oppsal	0-1 L	1-4 L
Sandefjord 2	3-1 W	1-3 L
Elverum	7-3 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Rade IL (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rade IL

WWLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-5	6	4	L
20/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	7-2	5	1	W
06/06	Østsiden Norway Cup	2-0	4-0	9	1	W
30/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-7	1-8	–	–	L
26/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	5-1	4	2	W
14/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
10/05	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
02/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	7-3	–	–	W

Bjørkelangen

LLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
25/06	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
13/06	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
06/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-3	3	6	L
31/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-4	3	4	L
09/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
02/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
26/04	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rade IL vs Bjørkelangen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rade IL win (80%). Probabilities: Rade IL 80%, draw 12%, Bjørkelangen 9%.

How many goals are expected in Rade IL vs Bjørkelangen?

The model expects 4.74 goals (Rade IL 3.37 · Bjørkelangen 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rade IL vs Bjørkelangen?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.