Football · USA NWSL Women · 15/08, 04:00

Prediction: Reign FC (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)

Team pages: Reign FC (W) · Chicago Stars (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Reign FC (W)1.97

Chicago Stars (W)1.15

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Reign FC (W) Draw Chicago Stars (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Reign FC (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWWD

Chicago Stars (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Reign FC (W) 2–2–2 Chicago Stars (W) (6 last)

Reign FC (W)3-3Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)2-2Reign FC (W)
Reign FC (W)1-2Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)2-1Reign FC (W)
Chicago Stars (W)0-3Reign FC (W)
Reign FC (W)5-2Chicago Stars (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reign FC (W) (rating 1502 vs 1434).
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reign FC (W)	Chicago Stars (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	0.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.42
X	4.55 → 4.55	Pinn 4.55
2	5.96 → 5.96	Pinn 5.96

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12	1.42	4.55	5.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Reign FC (W) 2–2–2 Chicago Stars (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/25 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	3-3 HT 2-0	Chicago Stars (W)
14/06/25 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Reign FC (W)
22/04/24 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Chicago Stars (W)
23/03/24 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Reign FC (W)
15/10/23 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Reign FC (W)
22/04/23 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	5-2 HT 3-1	Chicago Stars (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	19	12	4	3	24	12	40
2	Washington Spirit (W)	19	11	3	5	29	17	36
3	Utah Royals (W)	19	10	3	6	32	21	33
4	San Diego Wave (W)	19	10	2	7	24	20	32
5	Portland Thorns (W)	19	9	4	6	32	28	31
6	North Carolina Courage (W)	18	9	3	6	32	26	30
7	Kansas City Current (W)	19	9	3	7	30	26	30
8	Angel City FC (W)	16	7	2	7	24	17	23
9	Denver Summit FC (W)	18	6	5	7	24	24	23
10	Reign FC (W)	16	7	2	7	20	21	23
11	Orlando Pride (W)	19	7	2	10	23	29	23
12	Boston Legacy FC (W)	19	5	5	9	22	28	20
13	Houston Dash (W)	18	5	5	8	20	26	20
14	Bay FC (W)	17	5	3	9	18	24	18
15	Racing Louisville FC (W)	18	5	2	11	24	35	17
16	Chicago Stars (W)	17	4	0	13	9	33	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reign FC (W)	Chicago Stars (W)
Angel City FC (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Bay FC (W)	3-2 W	0-0 D
San Diego Wave (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
North Carolina Courage (W)	1-3 L	0-4 L
Boston Legacy FC (W)	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Reign FC (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reign FC (W)

LLWLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
02/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
26/07	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-3	1	2	L
12/07	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
05/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
31/05	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
23/05	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
16/05	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
11/05	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Chicago Stars (W)

LLWLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
01/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-2	0	1	L
25/07	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
05/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
31/05	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/05	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-4	4	2	L
10/05	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reign FC (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reign FC (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Reign FC (W) 55%, draw 24%, Chicago Stars (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in Reign FC (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Reign FC (W) 1.97 · Chicago Stars (W) 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Reign FC (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.