Football · USA NWSL Women · 23/08, 20:00

Prediction: Chicago Stars (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)

Team pages: Chicago Stars (W) · Racing Louisville FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Chicago Stars (W)1.12

Racing Louisville FC (W)1.69

1X2

25% 25% 51%

Chicago Stars (W) Draw Racing Louisville FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Stars (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Racing Louisville FC (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Stars (W) 1–1–4 Racing Louisville FC (W) (6 last)

Racing Louisville FC (W)2-1Chicago Stars (W)
Racing Louisville FC (W)1-1Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)0-1Racing Louisville FC (W)
Racing Louisville FC (W)3-1Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)0-1Racing Louisville FC (W)
Chicago Stars (W)1-0Racing Louisville FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Stars (W) 1431 · Racing Louisville FC (W) 1489

	Chicago Stars (W)	Draw	Racing Louisville FC (W)
Our model	24%	26%	50%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Louisville FC (W) (rating 1431 vs 1489).
H2H favours Racing Louisville FC (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Stars (W)	Racing Louisville FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.81 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +26’	3.50	3.90	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:48 +1’	3.91	3.88	1.72
21:39 +3’	3.73▼	3.83▼	1.77▲
00:55	3.86▲	3.89▲	1.74▼
16:19 +3’	3.86	3.92▲	1.73▼
23:42	3.81▼	3.90▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Stars (W) 1–1–4 Racing Louisville FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 USA NWSL Women	Racing Louisville FC (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Chicago Stars (W)
11/10/25 USA NWSL Women	Racing Louisville FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Chicago Stars (W)
31/03/25 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Racing Louisville FC (W)
25/08/24 USA NWSL Women	Racing Louisville FC (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Chicago Stars (W)
26/05/24 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Racing Louisville FC (W)
01/10/23 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Racing Louisville FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	20	13	4	3	26	13	43
2	Washington Spirit (W)	20	11	4	5	30	18	37
3	Utah Royals (W)	21	11	3	7	37	27	36
4	San Diego Wave (W)	21	11	3	7	29	23	36
5	Portland Thorns (W)	20	10	4	6	34	29	34
6	North Carolina Courage (W)	19	9	3	7	34	29	30
7	Kansas City Current (W)	20	9	3	8	31	28	30
8	Reign FC (W)	19	8	3	8	24	25	27
9	Houston Dash (W)	20	7	5	8	28	28	26
10	Angel City FC (W)	18	7	4	7	27	20	25
11	Denver Summit FC (W)	19	6	6	7	25	25	24
12	Racing Louisville FC (W)	20	7	2	11	30	37	23
13	Orlando Pride (W)	20	7	2	11	24	31	23
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	20	5	5	10	23	32	20
15	Bay FC (W)	19	5	4	10	20	27	19
16	Chicago Stars (W)	20	4	1	15	9	39	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Stars (W)	Racing Louisville FC (W)
Houston Dash (W)	0-5 L	1-1 D
Reign FC (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Bay FC (W)	0-0 D	0-2 L
Orlando Pride (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
Angel City FC (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Boston Legacy FC (W)	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Louisville FC (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Stars (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	0-5	5	2	L
15/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
10/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
01/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-2	0	1	L
25/07	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
05/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
31/05	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	1	7	W

Racing Louisville FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-1	0	1	W
16/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
08/08	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	3-1	9	1	W
01/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-1	7	1	W
30/07	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	1-5	3	3	L
27/07	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/07	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
06/07	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
30/05	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Stars (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Louisville FC (W) win (51%). Probabilities: Chicago Stars (W) 25%, draw 25%, Racing Louisville FC (W) 51%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Stars (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Chicago Stars (W) 1.12 · Racing Louisville FC (W) 1.69), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Stars (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.