Football · USA NWSL Women · 24/08, 00:00
Prediction: Bay FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W)
Team pages: Bay FC (W) · Houston Dash (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Bay FC (W)1.62
Houston Dash (W)1.17
1X2
Bay FC (W)
Draw
Houston Dash (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bay FC (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Houston Dash (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay FC (W)
2–2–2
Houston Dash (W)
(6 last)
- Houston Dash (W)1-0Bay FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)2-1Houston Dash (W)
- Bay FC (W)2-2Houston Dash (W)
- Houston Dash (W)2-2Bay FC (W)
- Houston Dash (W)2-3Bay FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)2-3Houston Dash (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay FC (W) 1461 · Houston Dash (W) 1508
| Bay FC (W) | Draw | Houston Dash (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dash (W) (rating 1461 vs 1508).
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay FC (W) | Houston Dash (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay FC (W) 2–2–2 Houston Dash (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 USA NWSL Women | Houston Dash (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bay FC (W) |
| 15/02/26 Women’s Friendly | Bay FC (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Houston Dash (W) |
| 03/08/25 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Houston Dash (W) |
| 25/05/25 USA NWSL Women | Houston Dash (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Bay FC (W) |
| 03/11/24 USA NWSL Women | Houston Dash (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Bay FC (W) |
| 31/03/24 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Houston Dash (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 43 |
| 2 | Washington Spirit (W) | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 37 |
| 3 | Utah Royals (W) | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 27 | 36 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave (W) | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 36 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns (W) | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 29 | 30 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current (W) | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | Reign FC (W) | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | Houston Dash (W) | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 26 |
| 10 | Angel City FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
| 11 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 24 |
| 12 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 37 | 23 |
| 13 | Orlando Pride (W) | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 32 | 20 |
| 15 | Bay FC (W) | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 16 | Chicago Stars (W) | 20 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 39 | 13 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay FC (W) | Houston Dash (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Stars (W) | 0-0 D | 5-0 W |
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| North Carolina Courage (W) | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Racing Louisville FC (W) | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bay FC (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/07 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
Houston Dash (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 02/08 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 13/07 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bay FC (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Bay FC (W) 47%, draw 25%, Houston Dash (W) 27%.
How many goals are expected in Bay FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W)?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Bay FC (W) 1.62 · Houston Dash (W) 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.