Football · USA NWSL Women · 13/09, 02:00

Prediction: Reign FC (W) vs Bay FC (W)

Team pages: Reign FC (W) · Bay FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Reign FC (W)1.72

Bay FC (W)0.91

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Reign FC (W) Draw Bay FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Reign FC (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWLDW

Bay FC (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Reign FC (W) 1–2–2 Bay FC (W) (5 last)

Bay FC (W)2-3Reign FC (W)
Reign FC (W)1-1Bay FC (W)
Bay FC (W)1-1Reign FC (W)
Reign FC (W)0-1Bay FC (W)
Bay FC (W)3-2Reign FC (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reign FC (W) (rating 1531 vs 1464).
H2H favours Bay FC (W): 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reign FC (W)	Bay FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.86

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.13▲	Pinn 2.13
X	3.50 → 3.59▲	Pinn 3.59
2	2.85 → 2.91▲	Pinn 2.91

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +8’	2.10	3.50	2.85
03:25 +51’	2.13▲	3.59▲	2.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Reign FC (W) 1–2–2 Bay FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	Reign FC (W)
11/10/25 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Bay FC (W)
27/04/25 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Reign FC (W)
30/09/24 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Bay FC (W)
15/04/24 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	3-2 HT 0-1	Reign FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	22	13	6	3	27	14	45
2	Washington Spirit (W)	22	12	4	6	31	19	40
3	Utah Royals (W)	23	12	3	8	40	30	39
4	San Diego Wave (W)	22	12	3	7	32	25	39
5	Portland Thorns (W)	22	11	5	6	36	30	38
6	Kansas City Current (W)	23	11	4	8	37	32	37
7	North Carolina Courage (W)	22	11	3	8	40	33	36
8	Angel City FC (W)	22	9	5	8	34	24	32
9	Reign FC (W)	21	9	4	8	26	26	31
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	21	7	6	8	31	27	27
11	Houston Dash (W)	22	7	5	10	28	30	26
12	Orlando Pride (W)	22	8	2	12	26	33	26
13	Racing Louisville FC (W)	23	7	2	14	34	45	23
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
15	Bay FC (W)	22	6	4	12	22	30	22
16	Chicago Stars (W)	22	5	1	16	13	47	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reign FC (W)	Bay FC (W)
Houston Dash (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Kansas City Current (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Racing Louisville FC (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Chicago Stars (W)	1-0 W	0-0 D
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	2-3 L	0-1 L
North Carolina Courage (W)	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reign FC (W)

LWLWWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
23/08	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
20/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	12	1	L
15/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	13	0	W
10/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
02/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
26/07	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-3	1	2	L
12/07	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
05/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L

Bay FC (W)

WWLLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
30/08	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
24/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-2	2-3	3	1	L
10/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
02/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	2-3	3	5	L
30/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
25/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
11/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reign FC (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reign FC (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Reign FC (W) 55%, draw 26%, Bay FC (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Reign FC (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Reign FC (W) 1.72 · Bay FC (W) 0.91), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Reign FC (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.