Football · USA NWSL Women · 21/09, 01:00
Prediction: Bay FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)
Team pages: Bay FC (W) · Racing Louisville FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Bay FC (W)1.64
Racing Louisville FC (W)1.26
1X2
Bay FC (W)
Draw
Racing Louisville FC (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bay FC (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Racing Louisville FC (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay FC (W)
4–1
Racing Louisville FC (W)
(5 last)
- Racing Louisville FC (W)0-2Bay FC (W)
- Racing Louisville FC (W)1-0Bay FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)2-0Racing Louisville FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)1-0Racing Louisville FC (W)
- Racing Louisville FC (W)0-1Bay FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay FC (W) 1442 · Racing Louisville FC (W) 1481
| Bay FC (W) | Draw | Racing Louisville FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bay FC (W): 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay FC (W) | Racing Louisville FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 4.1 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay FC (W) 4–0–1 Racing Louisville FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 USA NWSL Women | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Bay FC (W) |
| 02/11/25 USA NWSL Women | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bay FC (W) |
| 23/03/25 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Racing Louisville FC (W) |
| 08/09/24 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Racing Louisville FC (W) |
| 29/06/24 USA NWSL Women | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bay FC (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 18 | 48 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave (W) | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 45 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit (W) | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 23 | 43 |
| 4 | Utah Royals (W) | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 30 | 42 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns (W) | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 34 | 42 |
| 6 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 39 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current (W) | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 8 | Reign FC (W) | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 37 |
| 9 | Angel City FC (W) | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 28 | 36 |
| 10 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 32 | 32 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride (W) | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash (W) | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 34 | 26 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 40 | 26 |
| 14 | Bay FC (W) | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 34 | 23 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 47 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Stars (W) | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 54 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay FC (W) | Racing Louisville FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Reign FC (W) | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Kansas City Current (W) | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Chicago Stars (W) | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bay FC (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/07 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Racing Louisville FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/08 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/07 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/07 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bay FC (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Bay FC (W) 46%, draw 26%, Racing Louisville FC (W) 29%.
How many goals are expected in Bay FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Bay FC (W) 1.64 · Racing Louisville FC (W) 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.