Football · USA NWSL Women · 20/09, 02:45

Prediction: Denver Summit FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)

Team pages: Denver Summit FC (W) · Reign FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Denver Summit FC (W)1.66

Reign FC (W)1.08

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Denver Summit FC (W) Draw Reign FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Denver Summit FC (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLWWDD

Reign FC (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Denver Summit FC (W) 0–1–0 Reign FC (W) (1 last)

Reign FC (W)0-0Denver Summit FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denver Summit FC (W) 1512 · Reign FC (W) 1541

	Denver Summit FC (W)	Draw	Reign FC (W)
Our model	50%	27%	24%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denver Summit FC (W)	Reign FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.79
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +4’	1.75	3.75	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:43 +37’	1.78	4.00	3.57
14:38 +15’	1.81▲	3.96▼	3.48▼
02:47 +36’	1.80▼	4.00▲	3.48
14:47 +9’	1.79▼	4.00	3.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Denver Summit FC (W) 0–1–0 Reign FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA NWSL Women	Reign FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Denver Summit FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	24	14	6	4	29	18	48
2	San Diego Wave (W)	25	14	3	8	36	27	45
3	Washington Spirit (W)	24	13	4	7	33	23	43
4	Utah Royals (W)	24	13	3	8	41	30	42
5	North Carolina Courage (W)	24	12	3	9	47	35	39
6	Portland Thorns (W)	24	11	6	7	38	33	39
7	Kansas City Current (W)	25	11	5	9	39	36	38
8	Reign FC (W)	24	11	4	9	30	29	37
9	Angel City FC (W)	24	10	6	8	40	28	36
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	24	8	8	8	39	32	32
11	Orlando Pride (W)	24	9	3	12	31	36	30
12	Houston Dash (W)	24	7	5	12	29	34	26
13	Boston Legacy FC (W)	24	7	5	12	31	40	26
14	Bay FC (W)	24	6	5	13	24	34	23
15	Racing Louisville FC (W)	24	7	2	15	35	47	23
16	Chicago Stars (W)	24	5	2	17	14	54	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denver Summit FC (W)	Reign FC (W)
Bay FC (W)	2-2 D	2-0 W
Angel City FC (W)	3-3 D	1-3 L
Chicago Stars (W)	6-1 W	1-0 W
San Diego Wave (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denver Summit FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
12/09	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	3-3	1	2	D
06/09	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	3-0	3	0	W
30/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	6-1	3	1	W
23/08	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
15/08	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
09/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
06/08	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
03/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
27/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Reign FC (W)

WWDWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
13/09	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
07/09	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
31/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
23/08	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
20/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	12	1	L
15/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	13	0	W
10/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
02/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
26/07	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Denver Summit FC (W) win (51%). Probabilities: Denver Summit FC (W) 51%, draw 25%, Reign FC (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Denver Summit FC (W) 1.66 · Reign FC (W) 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.