Football · USA NWSL Women · 14/09, 01:00

Prediction: Portland Thorns (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)

Team pages: Portland Thorns (W) · Chicago Stars (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Portland Thorns (W)2.51

Chicago Stars (W)0.97

1X2

71% 17% 12%

Portland Thorns (W) Draw Chicago Stars (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Thorns (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWWDL

Chicago Stars (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Portland Thorns (W) 4–1–1 Chicago Stars (W) (6 last)

Chicago Stars (W)0-2Portland Thorns (W)
Chicago Stars (W)1-1Portland Thorns (W)
Portland Thorns (W)1-0Chicago Stars (W)
Portland Thorns (W)0-1Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)0-2Portland Thorns (W)
Chicago Stars (W)2-3Portland Thorns (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Thorns (W) 1512 · Chicago Stars (W) 1401

	Portland Thorns (W)	Draw	Chicago Stars (W)
Our model	70%	18%	12%
Market	71%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Thorns (W) (rating 1512 vs 1401).
H2H favours Portland Thorns (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Thorns (W)	Chicago Stars (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	0.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.06
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.06 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:18 +3’	1.27	5.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +38’	1.22	6.26	8.55
13:17 +16’	1.22▼	6.34▲	8.63▲
14:30 +6’	1.23▲	6.20▼	8.38▼
23:53 +47’	1.24▲	6.06▼	8.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Thorns (W) 4–1–1 Chicago Stars (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Portland Thorns (W)
14/09/25 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Portland Thorns (W)
22/06/25 USA NWSL Women	Portland Thorns (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Stars (W)
14/09/24 USA NWSL Women	Portland Thorns (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Chicago Stars (W)
28/04/24 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Portland Thorns (W)
19/06/23 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Portland Thorns (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	24	14	6	4	29	18	48
2	Washington Spirit (W)	23	13	4	6	33	20	43
3	Utah Royals (W)	24	13	3	8	41	30	42
4	San Diego Wave (W)	24	13	3	8	34	27	42
5	North Carolina Courage (W)	24	12	3	9	47	35	39
6	Kansas City Current (W)	24	11	5	8	39	34	38
7	Portland Thorns (W)	23	11	5	7	37	32	38
8	Reign FC (W)	23	11	4	8	29	26	37
9	Angel City FC (W)	23	9	6	8	37	27	33
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	23	8	7	8	37	30	31
11	Orlando Pride (W)	24	9	3	12	31	36	30
12	Houston Dash (W)	24	7	5	12	29	34	26
13	Racing Louisville FC (W)	24	7	2	15	35	47	23
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
15	Bay FC (W)	23	6	4	13	22	32	22
16	Chicago Stars (W)	23	5	1	17	13	53	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Thorns (W)	Chicago Stars (W)
Denver Summit FC (W)	1-0 W	1-6 L
Orlando Pride (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Boston Legacy FC (W)	4-3 W	0-2 L
Reign FC (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Racing Louisville FC (W)	4-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Thorns (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Thorns (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
29/08	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/08	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
09/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	4-2	4-3	2	6	W
03/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-5	2	0	L
25/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
18/07	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/07	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
06/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	3-0	4-0	3	4	W

Chicago Stars (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-6	1	3	L
30/08	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	1-6	2	1	L
23/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	3-2	4	0	W
20/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	0-5	5	2	L
15/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
10/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
01/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-2	0	1	L
25/07	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Thorns (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Thorns (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Portland Thorns (W) 71%, draw 17%, Chicago Stars (W) 12%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Thorns (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Portland Thorns (W) 2.51 · Chicago Stars (W) 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Thorns (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.