Football · USA NWSL Women · 30/08, 18:30

Prediction: Washington Spirit (W) vs Bay FC (W)

Team pages: Washington Spirit (W) · Bay FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Washington Spirit (W)1.75

Bay FC (W)0.96

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Washington Spirit (W) Draw Bay FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Washington Spirit (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLDL

Bay FC (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Washington Spirit (W) 5–1–0 Bay FC (W) (6 last)

Bay FC (W)0-2Washington Spirit (W)
Bay FC (W)2-3Washington Spirit (W)
Washington Spirit (W)2-0Bay FC (W)
Washington Spirit (W)1-1Bay FC (W)
Bay FC (W)0-3Washington Spirit (W)
Washington Spirit (W)2-1Bay FC (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Washington Spirit (W) (rating 1509 vs 1446).
H2H favours Washington Spirit (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Washington Spirit (W)	Bay FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.94

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.52 → 1.52	Pinn 1.52
X	4.18 → 4.18	Pinn 4.18
2	5.09 → 5.09	Pinn 5.09

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	1.52	4.18	5.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Washington Spirit (W) 5–1–0 Bay FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Washington Spirit (W)
23/08/25 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	2-3 HT 1-3	Washington Spirit (W)
29/03/25 USA NWSL Women	Washington Spirit (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Bay FC (W)
10/11/24 USA NWSL Women	Washington Spirit (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Bay FC (W)
07/07/24 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Washington Spirit (W)
24/03/24 USA NWSL Women	Washington Spirit (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Bay FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	20	13	4	3	26	13	43
2	Washington Spirit (W)	21	11	4	6	30	19	37
3	Portland Thorns (W)	21	11	4	6	35	29	37
4	Utah Royals (W)	21	11	3	7	37	27	36
5	San Diego Wave (W)	21	11	3	7	29	23	36
6	North Carolina Courage (W)	20	10	3	7	36	30	33
7	Kansas City Current (W)	21	9	4	8	32	29	31
8	Reign FC (W)	20	8	4	8	25	26	28
9	Houston Dash (W)	20	7	5	8	28	28	26
10	Orlando Pride (W)	21	8	2	11	25	31	26
11	Angel City FC (W)	18	7	4	7	27	20	25
12	Denver Summit FC (W)	20	6	6	8	25	26	24
13	Racing Louisville FC (W)	21	7	2	12	32	40	23
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	21	5	5	11	24	34	20
15	Bay FC (W)	19	5	4	10	20	27	19
16	Chicago Stars (W)	21	5	1	15	12	41	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Washington Spirit (W)	Bay FC (W)
Orlando Pride (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
North Carolina Courage (W)	3-4 L	3-0 W
Utah Royals (W)	1-0 W	2-3 L
Boston Legacy FC (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Houston Dash (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Washington Spirit (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Washington Spirit (W)

WWLWWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
17/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	3-4	7	4	L
02/08	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
27/07	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
16/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-0	2	1	W
04/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-1	4	3	W

Bay FC (W)

LLDWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-2	2-3	3	1	L
10/08	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
02/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	2-3	3	5	L
30/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
25/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
11/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	0	2	W
05/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
30/05	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	4	0	L
24/05	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Washington Spirit (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Washington Spirit (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Washington Spirit (W) 55%, draw 26%, Bay FC (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Washington Spirit (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Washington Spirit (W) 1.75 · Bay FC (W) 0.96), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Washington Spirit (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.