Football · USA NWSL Women · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Chicago Stars (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)

Team pages: Chicago Stars (W) · North Carolina Courage (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Chicago Stars (W)1.61

North Carolina Courage (W)1.92

1X2

32% 24% 45%

Chicago Stars (W) Draw North Carolina Courage (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Stars (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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North Carolina Courage (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Stars (W) 0–2–4 North Carolina Courage (W) (6 last)

North Carolina Courage (W)4-0Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)3-3North Carolina Courage (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)2-0Chicago Stars (W)
Chicago Stars (W)1-3North Carolina Courage (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)3-1Chicago Stars (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)1-1Chicago Stars (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Carolina Courage (W) (rating 1417 vs 1519).
H2H favours North Carolina Courage (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Stars (W)	North Carolina Courage (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:40

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.63 → 5.86▲	Pinn 5.86
X	4.60 → 4.69▲	Pinn 4.69
2	1.43 → 1.41▼	Pinn 1.41

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:30	5.63	4.60	1.43
14:38 +2’	5.86▲	4.69▲	1.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Stars (W) 0–2–4 North Carolina Courage (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	4-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Stars (W)
23/08/25 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	3-3 HT 0-0	North Carolina Courage (W)
17/05/25 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Stars (W)
30/09/24 USA NWSL Women	Chicago Stars (W)	1-3 HT 0-2	North Carolina Courage (W)
24/06/24 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	3-1 HT 1-1	Chicago Stars (W)
27/08/23 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Chicago Stars (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	22	13	6	3	27	14	45
2	Washington Spirit (W)	22	12	4	6	31	19	40
3	Utah Royals (W)	22	12	3	7	39	28	39
4	San Diego Wave (W)	22	12	3	7	32	25	39
5	Portland Thorns (W)	22	11	5	6	36	30	38
6	North Carolina Courage (W)	22	11	3	8	40	33	36
7	Kansas City Current (W)	22	10	4	8	35	31	34
8	Reign FC (W)	21	9	4	8	26	26	31
9	Angel City FC (W)	21	8	5	8	32	24	29
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	21	7	6	8	31	27	27
11	Houston Dash (W)	22	7	5	10	28	30	26
12	Orlando Pride (W)	22	8	2	12	26	33	26
13	Racing Louisville FC (W)	22	7	2	13	34	43	23
14	Bay FC (W)	21	6	4	11	21	28	22
15	Boston Legacy FC (W)	22	5	5	12	26	39	20
16	Chicago Stars (W)	22	5	1	16	13	47	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Stars (W)	North Carolina Courage (W)
Denver Summit FC (W)	1-6 L	2-0 W
Houston Dash (W)	0-5 L	2-3 L
Bay FC (W)	0-0 D	0-3 L
Orlando Pride (W)	0-1 L	5-0 W
Angel City FC (W)	0-2 L	2-0 W
Boston Legacy FC (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Utah Royals (W)	3-2 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: North Carolina Courage (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Stars (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	1-6	2	1	L
23/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	3-2	4	0	W
20/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	0-5	5	2	L
15/08	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
10/08	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
01/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-2	0	1	L
25/07	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
05/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	3-2	5	2	W

North Carolina Courage (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-3	2-3	4	7	L
27/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
23/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
17/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-3	1	1	L
09/08	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	3-0	4-3	2	4	W
06/08	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
01/08	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	3-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	1-4	5	1	L
18/07	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-3	8	0	L
12/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Stars (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an North Carolina Courage (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Chicago Stars (W) 32%, draw 24%, North Carolina Courage (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Stars (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Chicago Stars (W) 1.61 · North Carolina Courage (W) 1.92), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Stars (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.