Prediction: Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City
Expected goals: 4.25 (Gold Coast Knights 2.43 · Brisbane City 1.83). The model gives 50% home, 22% draw, 28% away. Over 3.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Gold Coast Knights sits at 6-1-3 (W-D-L), while Brisbane City arrives on a 5-1-4 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Gold Coast Knights won 5 and Brisbane City 1.
| Gold Coast Knights | Draw | Brisbane City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 21% | 29% |
| Market | 50% | 22% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (rating 1550 vs 1501).
- H2H favours Gold Coast Knights: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast Knights | Brisbane City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.8 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights 5–0–1 Brisbane City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Gold Coast Knights |
| 21/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast Knights | 5-2 HT 3-1 | Brisbane City |
| 23/03/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gold Coast Knights |
| 20/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Gold Coast Knights |
| 19/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast Knights | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Brisbane City |
| 16/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast Knights | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Brisbane City |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 18 | 38 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 32 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 26 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 25 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Magic United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 50 | 13 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast Knights | Brisbane City |
|---|---|---|
| Moreton City Excelsior | 2-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Eastern Suburbs | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Magic United | 2-1 W | 5-3 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 5-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Peninsula Power | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Wynnum Wolves | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 26/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 6 | L |
Brisbane City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-2 | 5-3 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
3-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gold Coast Knights win (50%). Probabilities: Gold Coast Knights 50%, draw 22%, Brisbane City 28%.
How many goals are expected in Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City?
The model expects 4.25 goals (Gold Coast Knights 2.43 · Brisbane City 1.83), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.