Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 01/08, 07:15

Prediction: Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights

Team pages: Gold Coast United · Gold Coast Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Gold Coast United1.04

Gold Coast Knights1.99

1X2

19% 22% 59%

Gold Coast United Draw Gold Coast Knights

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLD

Gold Coast Knights 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWDLD

Head-to-head

Gold Coast United 1–2–3 Gold Coast Knights (6 last)

Gold Coast Knights1-1Gold Coast United
Gold Coast United0-1Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights0-1Gold Coast United
Gold Coast Knights5-1Gold Coast United
Gold Coast United1-2Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast United2-2Gold Coast Knights

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast United 1398 · Gold Coast Knights 1528

	Gold Coast United	Draw	Gold Coast Knights
Our model	18%	23%	58%
Market	20%	20%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (rating 1398 vs 1528).
H2H favours Gold Coast Knights: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast United	Gold Coast Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.1	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +2’	4.50	4.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast United 1–2–3 Gold Coast Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	1-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United
01/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	5-1 HT 3-1	Gold Coast United
01/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	1-2 HT 0-1	Gold Coast Knights
03/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast United	2-2 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	19	14	2	3	50	20	44
2	Peninsula Power	19	13	4	2	45	22	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	19	11	3	5	49	30	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	19	10	4	5	42	28	34
5	Brisbane City	19	8	6	5	41	41	30
6	Wynnum Wolves	19	8	5	6	31	35	29
7	Eastern Suburbs	19	9	1	9	33	31	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	19	7	2	10	34	39	23
9	Magic United	19	5	1	13	28	55	16
10	Rochedale Rovers	19	4	3	12	29	48	15
11	Gold Coast United	19	4	2	13	23	37	14
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	19	4	1	14	27	46	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast United	Gold Coast Knights
Lions FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brisbane Olympic FC	3-0 W	5-2 W
Magic United	1-3 L	2-1 W
Moreton City Excelsior	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brisbane City	0-2 L	0-0 D
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	1-2 L
Peninsula Power	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gold Coast United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
12/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
28/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
20/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-4	7	3	L
13/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
07/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
30/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-4	3	5	L
26/05	North Star Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Gold Coast Knights

LWWWLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
12/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
07/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
04/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
05/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	5-2	5	0	W
15/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gold Coast Knights win (59%). Probabilities: Gold Coast United 19%, draw 22%, Gold Coast Knights 59%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Gold Coast United 1.04 · Gold Coast Knights 1.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.