Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 12/07, 14:00
Prediction: KuPS (W) vs Ilves (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.57Total
KuPS (W)2.59
Ilves (W)0.98
1X2
KuPS (W)
Draw
Ilves (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
KuPS (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Ilves (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KuPS (W)
5–1–0
Ilves (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1568 · Ilves (W) 1498
| KuPS (W) | Draw | Ilves (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1568 vs 1498).
- H2H favours KuPS (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KuPS (W) | Ilves (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 5–1–0 Ilves (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | KuPS (W) |
| 30/07/25 Finland Cup Women | Ilves (W) | 3-3 HT 1-2 | KuPS (W) |
| 17/08/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 8-0 HT 4-0 | Ilves (W) |
| 03/08/24 Finland Cup Women | KuPS (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Ilves (W) |
| 25/05/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 2-3 HT 1-0 | KuPS (W) |
| 31/08/23 Finland Cup Women | Ilves (W) | 1-6 HT 1-3 | KuPS (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | KuPS (W) | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | HPS (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Aland United (W) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 15 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 12 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 6 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KuPS (W) | Ilves (W) |
|---|---|---|
| HJK (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Aland United (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| VIFK (W) | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| HPS (W) | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KuPS (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | HJK (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/07 | Aland United (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 2 | W |
Ilves (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KuPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS (W) win (71%). Probabilities: KuPS (W) 71%, draw 17%, Ilves (W) 12%.
How many goals are expected in KuPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?
The model expects 3.57 goals (KuPS (W) 2.59 · Ilves (W) 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in KuPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.