Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 18/07, 13:00

Prediction: Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Ilves (W)2.24

IF Gnistan (W)1.24

1X2

59% 21% 20%

Ilves (W) Draw IF Gnistan (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ilves (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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IF Gnistan (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ilves (W) 1–0 IF Gnistan (W) (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilves (W) 1512 · IF Gnistan (W) 1448

	Ilves (W)	Draw	IF Gnistan (W)
Our model	59%	21%	19%
Market	60%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilves (W) (rating 1512 vs 1448).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilves (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	0.9 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 1–0–0 IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	12	11	0	1	32	9	33
2	KuPS (W)	12	8	1	3	29	18	25
3	HPS (W)	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	Aland United (W)	12	7	1	4	32	17	22
5	Ilves (W)	12	6	0	6	23	23	18
6	IF Gnistan (W)	12	4	0	8	19	29	12
7	PK-35 Vantaa (W)	12	2	0	10	12	33	6
8	VIFK (W)	12	0	1	11	6	33	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilves (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
KuPS (W)	4-2 W	0-2 L
Aland United (W)	0-2 L	1-4 L
HJK (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
VIFK (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
HPS (W)	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ilves (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ilves (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
27/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
14/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
31/05	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/05	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
17/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-2	2	1	W
09/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	1-4	4	3	L
25/04	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-2	6	1	L

IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
17/06	KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
13/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
31/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-4	3	4	L
26/05	HIFK (W) Finland Cup Women	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
22/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
17/05	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	2-3	8	1	L
14/05	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Cup Women	0-3	0-9	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ilves (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Ilves (W) 59%, draw 21%, IF Gnistan (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Ilves (W) 2.24 · IF Gnistan (W) 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.