Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 19/07, 15:00
Prediction: HJK (W) vs HPS (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
HJK (W)1.89
HPS (W)1.26
1X2
HJK (W)
Draw
HPS (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
HJK (W)
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
HPS (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HJK (W)
5–1–0
HPS (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HJK (W) 1678 · HPS (W) 1527
| HJK (W) | Draw | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1678 vs 1527).
- H2H favours HJK (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HJK (W) | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 7 | 2.3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK (W) 5–1–0 HPS (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | HJK (W) |
| 11/03/26 Finland Cup Women | HJK (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | HPS (W) |
| 14/02/26 Finland Cup Women | HPS (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | HJK (W) |
| 24/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | HJK (W) |
| 22/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 5-2 HT 1-1 | HPS (W) |
| 18/07/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | HPS (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | KuPS (W) | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | HPS (W) | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Aland United (W) | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 18 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 6 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HJK (W) | HPS (W) |
|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan (W) | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| KuPS (W) | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Ilves (W) | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Aland United (W) | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| VIFK (W) | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: HJK (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HJK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Cup Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/06 | HJK U18 (W) Finland Cup Women |
5-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 12/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
HPS (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 08/07 | EBK (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 01/07 | SJK-J (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HJK (W) vs HPS (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK (W) win (51%). Probabilities: HJK (W) 51%, draw 24%, HPS (W) 25%.
How many goals are expected in HJK (W) vs HPS (W)?
The model expects 3.15 goals (HJK (W) 1.89 · HPS (W) 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in HJK (W) vs HPS (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.