Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 18/07, 14:00
Prediction: KuPS (W) vs Aland United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
KuPS (W)2.08
Aland United (W)1.69
1X2
KuPS (W)
Draw
Aland United (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
KuPS (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Aland United (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KuPS (W)
5–1
Aland United (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1542 · Aland United (W) 1530
| KuPS (W) | Draw | Aland United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours KuPS (W): 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KuPS (W) | Aland United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 5–0–1 Aland United (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 Finland Cup Women | Aland United (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | KuPS (W) |
| 17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-6 HT 1-2 | KuPS (W) |
| 27/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 30/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 2-5 HT 0-5 | KuPS (W) |
| 27/07/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | KuPS (W) |
| 24/05/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Aland United (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | KuPS (W) | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | HPS (W) | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Aland United (W) | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 18 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 6 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KuPS (W) | Aland United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilves (W) | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| HJK (W) | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| VIFK (W) | 5-1 W | 2-0 W |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| HPS (W) | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KuPS (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 08/07 | HJK (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/07 | Aland United (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
Aland United (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KuPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS (W) win (46%). Probabilities: KuPS (W) 46%, draw 23%, Aland United (W) 31%.
How many goals are expected in KuPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?
The model expects 3.77 goals (KuPS (W) 2.08 · Aland United (W) 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in KuPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.