Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: Aland United (W) vs PK-35 Vantaa (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.97Total
Aland United (W)2.98
PK-35 Vantaa (W)0.98
1X2
Aland United (W)
Draw
PK-35 Vantaa (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Aland United (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
PK-35 Vantaa (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aland United (W)
4–2–0
PK-35 Vantaa (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1549 · PK-35 Vantaa (W) 1399
| Aland United (W) | Draw | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1549 vs 1399).
- H2H favours Aland United (W): 4-2-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aland United (W) | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 1.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 1.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 4–2–0 PK-35 Vantaa (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 11/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
| 14/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Aland United (W) |
| 30/07/25 Finland Cup Women | Aland United (W) | 2-2 HT 2-2 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
| 12/07/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 11/05/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | KuPS (W) | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | HPS (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Aland United (W) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 15 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 12 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 6 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aland United (W) | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilves (W) | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| KuPS (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| HPS (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| HJK (W) | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| VIFK (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aland United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
PK-35 Vantaa (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 30/06 | HJK (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 14/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aland United (W) vs PK-35 Vantaa (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aland United (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Aland United (W) 80%, draw 13%, PK-35 Vantaa (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Aland United (W) vs PK-35 Vantaa (W)?
The model expects 3.97 goals (Aland United (W) 2.98 · PK-35 Vantaa (W) 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aland United (W) vs PK-35 Vantaa (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.