Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 12/07, 14:00
Prediction: HPS (W) vs VIFK (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.05Total
HPS (W)3.03
VIFK (W)1.03
1X2
HPS (W)
Draw
VIFK (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
HPS (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
VIFK (W)
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HPS (W)
6–0
VIFK (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HPS (W) 1599 · VIFK (W) 1357
| HPS (W) | Draw | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 88% | 7% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (W) (rating 1599 vs 1357).
- H2H favours HPS (W): 6-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HPS (W) | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.9 | 1.7 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS (W) 6–0–0 VIFK (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 2-3 HT 0-1 | HPS (W) |
| 11/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | HPS (W) |
| 13/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 5-0 HT 4-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 05/07/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 5-0 HT 0-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 03/05/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 1-7 HT 1-5 | HPS (W) |
| 09/08/20 Finland Ykkonen Women | VIFK (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | HPS (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | KuPS (W) | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | HPS (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Aland United (W) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 15 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 12 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 6 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HPS (W) | VIFK (W) |
|---|---|---|
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Aland United (W) | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| KuPS (W) | 3-2 W | 1-5 L |
| Ilves (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| HJK (W) | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: HPS (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HPS (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | EBK (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 01/07 | SJK-J (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
VIFK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 21/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HPS (W) vs VIFK (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS (W) win (83%). Probabilities: HPS (W) 83%, draw 10%, VIFK (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in HPS (W) vs VIFK (W)?
The model expects 4.05 goals (HPS (W) 3.03 · VIFK (W) 1.03), with a 56% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in HPS (W) vs VIFK (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.