Football · USA USL Cup · 12/07, 01:30
Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs Detroit City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Fort Wayne FC0.97
Detroit City FC1.68
1X2
Fort Wayne FC
Draw
Detroit City FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fort Wayne FC
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Detroit City FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1537 · Detroit City FC 1524
| Fort Wayne FC | Draw | Detroit City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 24% | 21% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fort Wayne FC | Detroit City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.6 | 2.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 6.5 / 0.2 |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Indy Eleven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Lexington SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Union Omaha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Detroit City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Forward Madison FC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fort Wayne FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Detroit City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 20/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
3-1 | 6-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs Detroit City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Detroit City FC win (54%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 22%, draw 23%, Detroit City FC 54%.
How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs Detroit City FC?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Fort Wayne FC 0.97 · Detroit City FC 1.68), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs Detroit City FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.