Football · USA USL Cup · 12/07, 02:00
Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Forward Madison FC1.28
Union Omaha1.67
1X2
Forward Madison FC
Draw
Union Omaha
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Forward Madison FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Union Omaha
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forward Madison FC
0–3–3
Union Omaha
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1472 · Union Omaha 1542
| Forward Madison FC | Draw | Union Omaha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1472 vs 1542).
- H2H favours Union Omaha: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forward Madison FC | Union Omaha | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.8 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 0–3–3 Union Omaha
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 19/10/25 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 08/06/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union Omaha |
| 04/05/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Omaha |
| 30/08/24 USA USL Cup | Forward Madison FC | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Union Omaha |
| 04/08/24 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Forward Madison FC |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Indy Eleven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Lexington SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Union Omaha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Detroit City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Forward Madison FC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forward Madison FC | Union Omaha |
|---|---|---|
| New York Cosmos | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Fort Wayne FC | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| AC Boise | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Charlotte Independence | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 14 | 7 | L |
Union Omaha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 11/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 28/05 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Omaha win (46%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 29%, draw 26%, Union Omaha 46%.
How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.28 · Union Omaha 1.67), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.