Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs New York Cosmos
| Portland Hearts of Pine | Draw | New York Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 56% | 21% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Hearts of Pine (rating 1504 vs 1394).
- H2H favours Portland Hearts of Pine: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Hearts of Pine | New York Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.3 | 1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 2–0–0 New York Cosmos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 USA USL League One | Portland Hearts of Pine | 3-1 HT 2-0 | New York Cosmos |
| 14/03/26 USA USL League One | New York Cosmos | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Portland Hearts of Pine |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hartford Athletic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Brooklyn FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Rhode Island FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | New York Cosmos | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Westchester SC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Portland Hearts of Pine | New York Cosmos |
|---|---|---|
| FC Naples | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Westchester SC | 1-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Union Omaha | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Hearts of Pine (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portland Hearts of Pine
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
New York Cosmos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Westchester SC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs New York Cosmos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Hearts of Pine win (56%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 56%, draw 21%, New York Cosmos 24%.
How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs New York Cosmos?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 2.39 · New York Cosmos 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs New York Cosmos?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.