Football · USA USL Cup · 12/07, 01:30
Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Sarasota Paradise1.16
Miami FC1.76
1X2
Sarasota Paradise
Draw
Miami FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarasota Paradise
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Miami FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1491 · Miami FC 1469
| Sarasota Paradise | Draw | Miami FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarasota Paradise | Miami FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.8 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 7
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sarasota Paradise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Naples | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | South Georgia Tormenta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarasota Paradise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Miami FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 4-3 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 30/04 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Miami FC win (51%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 25%, draw 24%, Miami FC 51%.
How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.16 · Miami FC 1.76), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.