Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs FC Naples
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1556 vs 1393).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.6 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1–0 FC Naples
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/25 USA USL Cup | FC Naples | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 17/04/25 USA US Open Cup | FC Naples | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 7
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sarasota Paradise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Naples | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | South Georgia Tormenta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 21/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 17/05 | Miami FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
FC Naples
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 14/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs FC Naples?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (69%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 69%, draw 18%, FC Naples 13%.
How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs FC Naples?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.27 · FC Naples 0.87), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs FC Naples?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.