Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 18/07, 09:15
Prediction: University NSW vs NWS Spirit FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
University NSW1.26
NWS Spirit FC1.38
1X2
University NSW
Draw
NWS Spirit FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
University NSW
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
NWS Spirit FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University NSW
0–1
NWS Spirit FC
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University NSW 1491 · NWS Spirit FC 1490
| University NSW | Draw | NWS Spirit FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University NSW | NWS Spirit FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 2.2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University NSW 0–0–1 NWS Spirit FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | University NSW |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 55 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 27 | 51 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 17 | 48 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 36 |
| 5 | Sutherland Sharks | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 30 | 35 |
| 6 | Sydney FC U21 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 34 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 29 | 32 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit FC | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | Manly Utd | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 30 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 42 | 34 | 29 |
| 11 | University NSW | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
| 12 | SD Raiders | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 39 | 26 |
| 13 | St George City FA | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 37 | 25 |
| 14 | Blacktown City | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 39 | 22 |
| 15 | St George Saints | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 22 | 39 | 19 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 49 | 18 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University NSW | NWS Spirit FC |
|---|---|---|
| St George City FA | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Sydney FC U21 | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Sutherland Sharks | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Marconi Stallions | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| St George Saints | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| SD Raiders | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Wollongong Wolves | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Rockdale Ilinden FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University NSW
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
NWS Spirit FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University NSW vs NWS Spirit FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an NWS Spirit FC win (39%). Probabilities: University NSW 34%, draw 27%, NWS Spirit FC 39%.
How many goals are expected in University NSW vs NWS Spirit FC?
The model expects 2.64 goals (University NSW 1.26 · NWS Spirit FC 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in University NSW vs NWS Spirit FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.