Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 25/07, 10:00

Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs University NSW

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Apia L Tigers2.04

University NSW1.04

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Apia L Tigers Draw University NSW

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Apia L Tigers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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University NSW 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Apia L Tigers 0–1–0 University NSW (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1564 · University NSW 1517

	Apia L Tigers	Draw	University NSW
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1564 vs 1517).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apia L Tigers	University NSW
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +8’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 0–1–0 University NSW

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	University NSW	1-1 HT 0-1	Apia L Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marconi Stallions	24	17	4	3	45	15	55
2	Apia L Tigers	24	17	3	4	52	30	54
3	Sydney United 58	24	16	3	5	35	17	51
4	Rockdale Ilinden FC	24	12	3	9	42	33	39
5	Sutherland Sharks	24	11	3	10	37	31	36
6	Sydney FC U21	24	10	5	9	32	34	35
7	Wollongong Wolves	24	9	5	10	28	32	32
8	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
9	Manly Utd	24	8	7	9	25	29	31
10	University NSW	24	9	4	11	35	36	31
11	SD Raiders	24	8	5	11	33	41	29
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	24	6	7	11	33	39	25
14	St George City FA	24	6	7	11	22	40	25
15	St George Saints	24	6	1	17	23	45	19
16	Sydney Olympic	24	5	4	15	26	50	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apia L Tigers	University NSW
Sydney FC U21	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sutherland Sharks	2-3 L	1-3 L
Rockdale Ilinden FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Wollongong Wolves	2-0 W	1-0 W
NWS Spirit FC	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Apia L Tigers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
14/07	Peninsula Power Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
21/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
13/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
06/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
30/05	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
27/05	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

University NSW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
11/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
04/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
27/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
21/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
13/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
06/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
30/05	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
23/05	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
16/05	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs University NSW?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (60%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 60%, draw 23%, University NSW 18%.

How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs University NSW?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Apia L Tigers 2.04 · University NSW 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs University NSW?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.