Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 26/07, 07:00

Prediction: Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Wollongong Wolves1.39

Blacktown City1.56

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Wollongong Wolves Draw Blacktown City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wollongong Wolves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Blacktown City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Wollongong Wolves 2–2–2 Blacktown City (6 last)

Blacktown City1-3Wollongong Wolves
Blacktown City1-0Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves0-1Blacktown City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wollongong Wolves 1440 · Blacktown City 1477

	Wollongong Wolves	Draw	Blacktown City
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wollongong Wolves	Blacktown City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +31’	2.70	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +1’	2.62	3.64	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wollongong Wolves 2–2–2 Blacktown City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	1-3 HT 1-1	Wollongong Wolves
31/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	1-0 HT 0-0	Wollongong Wolves
17/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Wollongong Wolves	0-1 HT 0-0	Blacktown City
15/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Wollongong Wolves	2-2 HT 1-1	Blacktown City
10/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	0-1 HT 0-0	Wollongong Wolves
20/08/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	1-1 HT 0-0	Wollongong Wolves

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marconi Stallions	24	17	4	3	45	15	55
2	Apia L Tigers	24	17	3	4	52	30	54
3	Sydney United 58	24	16	3	5	35	17	51
4	Rockdale Ilinden FC	24	12	3	9	42	33	39
5	Sutherland Sharks	24	11	3	10	37	31	36
6	Sydney FC U21	24	10	5	9	32	34	35
7	Wollongong Wolves	24	9	5	10	28	32	32
8	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
9	Manly Utd	24	8	7	9	25	29	31
10	University NSW	24	9	4	11	35	36	31
11	SD Raiders	24	8	5	11	33	41	29
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	24	6	7	11	33	39	25
14	St George City FA	24	6	7	11	22	40	25
15	St George Saints	24	6	1	17	23	45	19
16	Sydney Olympic	24	5	4	15	26	50	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wollongong Wolves	Blacktown City
SD Raiders	2-3 L	3-1 W
Sydney Olympic	2-3 L	0-2 L
St George City FA	3-3 D	3-0 W
Apia L Tigers	0-2 L	1-3 L
Marconi Stallions	0-1 L	0-2 L
Manly Utd	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Wollongong Wolves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wollongong Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	2-3	3	8	L
11/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	2-3	1	0	L
05/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	3-3	8	0	D
27/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L
13/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
07/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
30/05	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
24/05	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
16/05	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Blacktown City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
13/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
07/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
30/05	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Sydney United 58 Australia Cup Qualifying	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
24/05	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blacktown City win (41%). Probabilities: Wollongong Wolves 33%, draw 26%, Blacktown City 41%.

How many goals are expected in Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Wollongong Wolves 1.39 · Blacktown City 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.