Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 25/07, 10:30

Prediction: St George Saints vs Sydney FC U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

St George Saints1.44

Sydney FC U211.63

1X2

33% 26% 41%

St George Saints Draw Sydney FC U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St George Saints 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Sydney FC U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

St George Saints 2–1–2 Sydney FC U21 (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Saints 1396 · Sydney FC U21 1526

	St George Saints	Draw	Sydney FC U21
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney FC U21 (rating 1396 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Saints	Sydney FC U21
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:07 +2’	2.75	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Saints 2–1–2 Sydney FC U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	4-2 HT 3-0	St George Saints
15/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	1-1 HT 1-0	St George Saints
27/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	1-0 HT 1-0	Sydney FC U21
07/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	2-1 HT 1-1	St George Saints
02/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	2-1 HT 2-0	Sydney FC U21

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marconi Stallions	24	17	4	3	45	15	55
2	Apia L Tigers	24	17	3	4	52	30	54
3	Sydney United 58	24	16	3	5	35	17	51
4	Rockdale Ilinden FC	24	12	3	9	42	33	39
5	Sutherland Sharks	24	11	3	10	37	31	36
6	Sydney FC U21	24	10	5	9	32	34	35
7	Wollongong Wolves	24	9	5	10	28	32	32
8	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
9	Manly Utd	24	8	7	9	25	29	31
10	University NSW	24	9	4	11	35	36	31
11	SD Raiders	24	8	5	11	33	41	29
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	24	6	7	11	33	39	25
14	St George City FA	24	6	7	11	22	40	25
15	St George Saints	24	6	1	17	23	45	19
16	Sydney Olympic	24	5	4	15	26	50	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Saints	Sydney FC U21
NWS Spirit FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	0-0 D
Sydney Olympic	1-2 L	2-0 W
Manly Utd	0-2 L	0-0 D
University NSW	4-1 W	2-3 L
Wollongong Wolves	0-2 L	3-2 W
Sydney United 58	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sydney FC U21 (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St George Saints

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	5	L
11/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
05/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
27/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
20/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
13/06	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	2	5	W
06/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	14	2	L
30/05	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/05	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
16/05	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	4	L

Sydney FC U21

WLWDWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
11/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
04/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
30/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
26/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
21/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
12/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	10	D
05/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-6	10	2	L
15/05	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Saints vs Sydney FC U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sydney FC U21 win (41%). Probabilities: St George Saints 33%, draw 26%, Sydney FC U21 41%.

How many goals are expected in St George Saints vs Sydney FC U21?

The model expects 3.07 goals (St George Saints 1.44 · Sydney FC U21 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Saints vs Sydney FC U21?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.