Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 01/08, 10:30

Prediction: St George Saints vs SD Raiders

Team pages: St George Saints · SD Raiders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

St George Saints1.38

SD Raiders1.38

1X2

37% 26% 37%

St George Saints Draw SD Raiders

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St George Saints 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLD

SD Raiders 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

St George Saints 2–1–3 SD Raiders (6 last)

SD Raiders1-0St George Saints
St George Saints1-3SD Raiders
SD Raiders2-2St George Saints
St George Saints2-0SD Raiders
SD Raiders4-1St George Saints
St George Saints2-1SD Raiders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Saints 1408 · SD Raiders 1530

	St George Saints	Draw	SD Raiders
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Raiders (rating 1408 vs 1530).
H2H favours SD Raiders: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Saints	SD Raiders
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
04:07 +5’	2.38	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Saints 2–1–3 SD Raiders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	SD Raiders	1-0 HT 0-0	St George Saints
03/06/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	St George Saints	1-3 HT 1-1	SD Raiders
18/02/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	SD Raiders	2-2 HT 0-1	St George Saints
04/06/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	St George Saints	2-0 HT 0-0	SD Raiders
19/03/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	SD Raiders	4-1 HT 1-0	St George Saints
17/04/21 Australia New South Wales League 2	St George Saints	2-1 HT 2-1	SD Raiders

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	25	18	3	4	56	31	57
2	Marconi Stallions	25	17	4	4	46	17	55
3	Sydney United 58	25	16	3	6	35	18	51
4	Sutherland Sharks	25	12	3	10	40	32	39
5	Rockdale Ilinden FC	25	12	3	10	43	36	39
6	Sydney FC U21	25	10	6	9	32	34	36
7	Manly Utd	25	9	7	9	29	29	34
8	SD Raiders	25	9	5	11	35	42	32
9	Wollongong Wolves	25	9	5	11	28	34	32
10	University NSW	25	9	4	12	36	40	31
11	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	25	7	7	11	35	39	28
14	St George City FA	25	7	7	11	23	40	28
15	St George Saints	25	6	2	17	23	45	20
16	Sydney Olympic	25	5	4	16	26	54	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Saints	SD Raiders
Sydney FC U21	0-0 D	0-1 L
Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-6 L	1-0 W
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	2-1 W
Sydney Olympic	1-2 L	1-1 D
Manly Utd	0-2 L	0-1 L
St George City FA	0-1 L	3-1 W
Wollongong Wolves	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SD Raiders (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St George Saints

LLLWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	5	L
11/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
05/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
27/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
20/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
13/06	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	2	5	W
06/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	14	2	L
30/05	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/05	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	8	L

SD Raiders

DWLWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	3-2	4	8	W
14/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
11/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
04/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
30/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
27/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	3-1	5	0	W
21/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
14/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Saints vs SD Raiders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St George Saints win (37%). Probabilities: St George Saints 37%, draw 26%, SD Raiders 37%.

How many goals are expected in St George Saints vs SD Raiders?

The model expects 2.77 goals (St George Saints 1.38 · SD Raiders 1.38), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Saints vs SD Raiders?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.