Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 02/08, 06:00

Prediction: Sydney Olympic vs Apia L Tigers

Team pages: Sydney Olympic · Apia L Tigers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Sydney Olympic1.11

Apia L Tigers2.35

1X2

16% 20% 64%

Sydney Olympic Draw Apia L Tigers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney Olympic 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWLWDL

Apia L Tigers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Sydney Olympic 0–1–5 Apia L Tigers (6 last)

Apia L Tigers4-1Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic0-1Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers2-0Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic1-1Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers2-0Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic3-5Apia L Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney Olympic 1462 · Apia L Tigers 1600

	Sydney Olympic	Draw	Apia L Tigers
Our model	16%	20%	64%
Market	16%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1462 vs 1600).
H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sydney Olympic	Apia L Tigers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	3.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:25 +3’	5.75	4.33	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney Olympic 0–1–5 Apia L Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	4-1 HT 2-0	Sydney Olympic
31/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	0-1 HT 0-1	Apia L Tigers
18/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-0 HT 1-0	Sydney Olympic
17/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	1-1 HT 1-0	Apia L Tigers
17/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-0 HT 2-0	Sydney Olympic
05/08/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	3-5 HT 1-3	Apia L Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	25	18	3	4	56	31	57
2	Marconi Stallions	25	17	4	4	46	17	55
3	Sydney United 58	25	16	3	6	35	18	51
4	Sutherland Sharks	25	12	3	10	40	32	39
5	Rockdale Ilinden FC	25	12	3	10	43	36	39
6	Sydney FC U21	25	10	6	9	32	34	36
7	Manly Utd	25	9	7	9	29	29	34
8	SD Raiders	25	9	5	11	35	42	32
9	Wollongong Wolves	25	9	5	11	28	34	32
10	University NSW	25	9	4	12	36	40	31
11	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	25	7	7	11	35	39	28
14	St George City FA	25	7	7	11	23	40	28
15	St George Saints	25	6	2	17	23	45	20
16	Sydney Olympic	25	5	4	16	26	54	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney Olympic	Apia L Tigers
Manly Utd	0-4 L	2-0 W
Sutherland Sharks	1-1 D	2-3 L
Wollongong Wolves	3-2 W	2-0 W
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	1-2 L	5-3 W
Rockdale Ilinden FC	0-4 L	0-2 L
NWS Spirit FC	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sydney Olympic

WDDLLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
18/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
11/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	3-2	3	0	W
04/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
27/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
20/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-3	0-4	0	1	L
13/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
10/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
27/05	Fraser Park Australia Cup Qualifying	0-2	3-2	3	1	W

Apia L Tigers

WWWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
14/07	Peninsula Power Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
21/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
13/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
06/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
30/05	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney Olympic vs Apia L Tigers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Apia L Tigers win (64%). Probabilities: Sydney Olympic 16%, draw 20%, Apia L Tigers 64%.

How many goals are expected in Sydney Olympic vs Apia L Tigers?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Sydney Olympic 1.11 · Apia L Tigers 2.35), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sydney Olympic vs Apia L Tigers?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.