Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 02/08, 07:00

Prediction: Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U21

Team pages: Blacktown City · Sydney FC U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Blacktown City1.77

Sydney FC U211.22

1X2

49% 25% 25%

Blacktown City Draw Sydney FC U21

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blacktown City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Sydney FC U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Blacktown City 3–2–1 Sydney FC U21 (6 last)

Sydney FC U212-2Blacktown City
Sydney FC U213-3Blacktown City
Blacktown City0-5Sydney FC U21
Sydney FC U211-2Blacktown City
Blacktown City8-0Sydney FC U21
Blacktown City3-0Sydney FC U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blacktown City 1512 · Sydney FC U21 1508

	Blacktown City	Draw	Sydney FC U21
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Blacktown City: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blacktown City	Sydney FC U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:25 +4’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown City 3–2–1 Sydney FC U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	2-2 HT 0-1	Blacktown City
22/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	3-3 HT 0-1	Blacktown City
11/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	0-5 HT 0-2	Sydney FC U21
12/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney FC U21	1-2 HT 0-1	Blacktown City
07/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	8-0 HT 4-0	Sydney FC U21
09/07/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	3-0 HT 1-0	Sydney FC U21

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	25	18	3	4	56	31	57
2	Marconi Stallions	25	17	4	4	46	17	55
3	Sydney United 58	25	16	3	6	35	18	51
4	Sutherland Sharks	25	12	3	10	40	32	39
5	Rockdale Ilinden FC	25	12	3	10	43	36	39
6	Sydney FC U21	25	10	6	9	32	34	36
7	Manly Utd	25	9	7	9	29	29	34
8	SD Raiders	25	9	5	11	35	42	32
9	Wollongong Wolves	25	9	5	11	28	34	32
10	University NSW	25	9	4	12	36	40	31
11	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	25	7	7	11	35	39	28
14	St George City FA	25	7	7	11	23	40	28
15	St George Saints	25	6	2	17	23	45	20
16	Sydney Olympic	25	5	4	16	26	54	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blacktown City	Sydney FC U21
Wollongong Wolves	2-0 W	3-2 W
SD Raiders	3-1 W	1-0 W
Sydney United 58	0-0 D	1-0 W
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	0-0 D
Apia L Tigers	1-3 L	1-2 L
Manly Utd	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sydney FC U21 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Blacktown City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
13/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
07/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
30/05	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Sydney United 58 Australia Cup Qualifying	0-3	0-4	7	1	L

Sydney FC U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
17/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
11/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
04/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
30/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
26/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
21/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
12/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	10	D
05/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-6	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blacktown City win (49%). Probabilities: Blacktown City 49%, draw 25%, Sydney FC U21 25%.

How many goals are expected in Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U21?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Blacktown City 1.77 · Sydney FC U21 1.22), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U21?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.