Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 16/08, 07:00

Prediction: Blacktown City vs University NSW

Team pages: Blacktown City · University NSW

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Blacktown City1.97

University NSW1.49

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Blacktown City Draw University NSW

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blacktown City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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University NSW 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Blacktown City 1–1–0 University NSW (2 last)

University NSW2-2Blacktown City
Blacktown City3-0University NSW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blacktown City 1519 · University NSW 1449

	Blacktown City	Draw	University NSW
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown City (rating 1519 vs 1449).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blacktown City	University NSW
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.11
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	3.20 → 2.88▼	Pinn 2.91

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:43 +9’	1.91	3.60	3.20
10:21 +4’	1.90▼	3.60	3.25▲
11:52 +3’	2.10▲	3.50▼	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:23 +1’	2.06	3.64	3.02
11:54	2.11▲	3.64	2.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown City 1–1–0 University NSW

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	University NSW	2-2 HT 1-2	Blacktown City
09/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Blacktown City	3-0 HT 2-0	University NSW

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	27	19	4	4	59	32	61
2	Sydney United 58	27	18	3	6	39	19	57
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	47	21	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	43	34	43
5	SD Raiders	27	11	5	11	41	44	38
6	Manly Utd	27	10	8	9	33	31	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	27	11	4	12	42	40	37
8	Sydney FC U21	27	10	7	10	35	39	37
9	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	27	10	5	12	51	43	35
10	Blacktown City	27	9	7	11	42	42	34
11	NWS Spirit FC	27	10	4	13	31	37	34
12	St George City FA	27	9	7	11	25	40	34
13	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	30	38	32
14	University NSW	27	9	4	14	38	45	31
15	Sydney Olympic	27	6	4	17	30	58	22
16	St George Saints	27	6	3	18	25	48	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blacktown City	University NSW
NWS Spirit FC	1-3 L	3-1 W
Sydney FC U21	4-2 W	3-2 W
St George City FA	3-0 W	2-0 W
SD Raiders	3-1 W	0-2 L
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	0-1 L
Apia L Tigers	1-3 L	1-4 L
Sutherland Sharks	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Blacktown City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blacktown City

LWLLDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
02/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	4-2	4	0	W
26/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
13/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
07/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

University NSW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
01/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
18/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
11/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
04/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
27/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
21/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
13/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
06/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blacktown City vs University NSW?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blacktown City win (48%). Probabilities: Blacktown City 48%, draw 24%, University NSW 28%.

How many goals are expected in Blacktown City vs University NSW?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Blacktown City 1.97 · University NSW 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blacktown City vs University NSW?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.