Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 23/08, 06:30

Prediction: Sydney United 58 vs Apia L Tigers

Team pages: Sydney United 58 · Apia L Tigers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Sydney United 581.29

Apia L Tigers1.26

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Sydney United 58 Draw Apia L Tigers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney United 58 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Apia L Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sydney United 58 3–2–1 Apia L Tigers (6 last)

Apia L Tigers1-1Sydney United 58
Apia L Tigers2-1Sydney United 58
Apia L Tigers2-2Sydney United 58
Sydney United 582-1Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers1-2Sydney United 58
Sydney United 582-0Apia L Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney United 58 1539 · Apia L Tigers 1581

	Sydney United 58	Draw	Apia L Tigers
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1539 vs 1581).
H2H favours Sydney United 58: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sydney United 58	Apia L Tigers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:23 +12’	2.40	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney United 58 3–2–1 Apia L Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Australia Cup	Apia L Tigers	1-1 HT 1-0	Sydney United 58
09/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-1 HT 2-1	Sydney United 58
20/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-2 HT 0-1	Sydney United 58
06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney United 58	2-1 HT 1-1	Apia L Tigers
28/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	1-2 HT 0-0	Sydney United 58
21/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney United 58	2-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	28	20	4	4	62	33	64
2	Sydney United 58	28	19	3	6	41	20	60
3	Marconi Stallions	28	18	4	6	48	21	58
4	Sutherland Sharks	28	13	4	11	43	35	43
5	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	42	47	38
6	Manly Utd	28	10	8	10	33	35	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	28	11	4	13	43	42	37
8	Sydney FC U21	28	10	7	11	35	41	37
9	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	27	40	37
10	NWS Spirit FC	28	11	4	13	35	37	37
11	Blacktown City	28	9	8	11	42	42	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	28	10	5	13	32	39	35
13	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	28	10	5	13	52	45	35
14	University NSW	28	9	5	14	38	45	32
15	St George Saints	28	7	3	18	27	49	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	31	60	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney United 58	Apia L Tigers
Sydney Olympic	2-1 W	3-1 W
Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Sydney FC U21	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sydney United 58

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
12/08	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/08	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
02/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/07	Central Coast Mariners Australia Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
12/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

Apia L Tigers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	3-1	4	8	W
12/08	Sydney United 58 Australia Cup	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
14/07	Peninsula Power Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney United 58 vs Apia L Tigers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sydney United 58 win (37%). Probabilities: Sydney United 58 37%, draw 28%, Apia L Tigers 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sydney United 58 vs Apia L Tigers?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Sydney United 58 1.29 · Apia L Tigers 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sydney United 58 vs Apia L Tigers?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.