Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 22/08, 09:30

Prediction: NWS Spirit FC vs SD Raiders

Team pages: NWS Spirit FC · SD Raiders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

NWS Spirit FC1.53

SD Raiders1.21

1X2

44% 26% 29%

NWS Spirit FC Draw SD Raiders

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NWS Spirit FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLLWW

SD Raiders 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

NWS Spirit FC 3–1–1 SD Raiders (5 last)

SD Raiders0-0NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC1-0SD Raiders
SD Raiders0-1NWS Spirit FC
SD Raiders2-0NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC3-1SD Raiders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit FC 1518 · SD Raiders 1519

	NWS Spirit FC	Draw	SD Raiders
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NWS Spirit FC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NWS Spirit FC	SD Raiders
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:53 +4’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit FC 3–1–1 SD Raiders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	SD Raiders	0-0 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit FC
11/06/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	NWS Spirit FC	1-0 HT 1-0	SD Raiders
26/03/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	SD Raiders	0-1 HT 0-1	NWS Spirit FC
08/05/21 Australia New South Wales League 2	SD Raiders	2-0 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit FC
08/08/20 Australia New South Wales League 2	NWS Spirit FC	3-1 HT 1-0	SD Raiders

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	28	20	4	4	62	33	64
2	Sydney United 58	28	19	3	6	41	20	60
3	Marconi Stallions	28	18	4	6	48	21	58
4	Sutherland Sharks	28	13	4	11	43	35	43
5	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	42	47	38
6	Manly Utd	28	10	8	10	33	35	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	28	11	4	13	43	42	37
8	Sydney FC U21	28	10	7	11	35	41	37
9	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	27	40	37
10	NWS Spirit FC	28	11	4	13	35	37	37
11	Blacktown City	28	9	8	11	42	42	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	28	10	5	13	32	39	35
13	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	28	10	5	13	52	45	35
14	University NSW	28	9	5	14	38	45	32
15	St George Saints	28	7	3	18	27	49	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	31	60	22

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NWS Spirit FC	SD Raiders
Manly Utd	4-0 W	0-1 L
Blacktown City	3-1 W	1-3 L
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	0-4 L	3-0 W
St George Saints	3-1 W	3-2 W
Wollongong Wolves	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NWS Spirit FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NWS Spirit FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	4-0	4	1	W
08/08	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
25/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-4	8	0	L
18/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
11/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
27/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
20/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
13/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

SD Raiders

LLWWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Sydney FC Australia Cup	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
15/08	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-3	1-3	4	8	L
11/08	Macarthur FC Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
08/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
01/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
25/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	3-2	4	8	W
14/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
11/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
04/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NWS Spirit FC vs SD Raiders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NWS Spirit FC win (44%). Probabilities: NWS Spirit FC 44%, draw 26%, SD Raiders 29%.

How many goals are expected in NWS Spirit FC vs SD Raiders?

The model expects 2.74 goals (NWS Spirit FC 1.53 · SD Raiders 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NWS Spirit FC vs SD Raiders?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.